Closing spread
CIN -9.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+6.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play+0.012
- 35.2%Success rate46.4%
- -0.212EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.115EPA / rush+0.012
- 6.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -5.66CPOE+1.28
- 33.8%Third-down rate44.3%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 1.18Points / drive1.93
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 11/22 | 111 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Sampson | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Raheim Sanders | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Raheim Sanders | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brenden Bates | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Sal Cannella | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 29/39 | 236 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 8 | 10 | 96 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 9 | 67 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 4 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.90