2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Shedeur Sanders

20·18

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 37°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CIN -9.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+6.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.176EPA / play+0.012
  • 35.2%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.212EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.115EPA / rush+0.012
  • 6.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -5.66CPOE+1.28
  • 33.8%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 48.2%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.93
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE
2021 · W18CIN @ CLE16–21CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CINQ1 15:00310Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:37524Turnover0–0
CINQ1 10:22529Touchdown0–6
CLEQ1 7:5934Punt0–6
CINQ1 6:20963Opp touchdown7–6
CINQ1 0:56416Opp touchdown14–6
CINQ2 14:06627Punt14–6
CLEQ2 9:444-1Punt14–6
CINQ2 7:1337Punt14–6
CLEQ2 6:1636Punt14–6
CINQ2 4:41979Touchdown14–12
CLEQ2 0:2937End of half14–12
CLEQ3 15:001161Field goal17–12
CINQ3 8:00931Punt17–12
CLEQ3 1:561150Punt17–12
CINQ4 10:361241Punt17–12
CLEQ4 3:4939Punt17–12
CINQ4 2:41761Touchdown17–18
CLEQ4 1:29940Field goal20–18

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shedeur Sanders11/2211100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dylan Sampson10323.20
Raheim Sanders5265.20
Shedeur Sanders3268.70
Malachi Corley3186.00
Trayveon Williams177.00
Jerry Jeudy155.00
Isaiah Bond144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cedric Tillman12230
Malachi Corley22200
Jerry Jeudy26170
Trayveon Williams12130
Isaiah Bond12130
Dylan Sampson23120
Raheim Sanders1170
Brenden Bates1160
Sal Cannella0100
Blake Whiteheart0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow29/3923631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown13725.50
Samaje Perine8425.30
Joe Burrow2178.50
Ke'Shawn Williams199.00
Joe Flacco122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase810961
Tee Higgins69671
Chase Brown46181
Drew Sample33170
Mike Gesicki22130
Samaje Perine34100
Andrei Iosivas23100
Noah Fant1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.55.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.26
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.90