Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play-0.127
- 44.4%Success rate39.3%
- +0.050EPA / dropback-0.131
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.121
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- +2.09CPOE-5.66
- 38.3%Third-down rate32.3%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.56
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 14/31 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 16/29 | 154 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 18 | 106 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Jerome Ford | 15 | 36 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| David Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.04