2023 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

3·24

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.001EPA / play-0.127
  • 44.4%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback-0.131
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.121
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +2.09CPOE-5.66
  • 38.3%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.56
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE
2021 · W18CIN @ CLE16–21CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:05614Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:3039Punt0–0
CLEQ1 6:59743Turnover0–0
CINQ1 3:3539Punt0–0
CLEQ1 2:09633Field goal0–3
CINQ2 14:1537Punt0–3
CLEQ2 13:1749Punt0–3
CINQ2 11:59541Punt0–3
CLEQ2 8:39520Punt0–3
CINQ2 5:4139Punt0–3
CLEQ2 4:05414Punt0–3
CINQ2 2:0747Punt0–3
CLEQ2 1:36967Touchdown0–10
CINQ2 0:1700End of half0–10
CLEQ3 15:003-1Punt0–10
CINQ3 13:30612Field goal3–10
CLEQ3 11:44439Turnover3–10
CINQ3 9:42617Missed field goal3–10
CLEQ3 6:53843Field goal3–13
CINQ3 2:21517Punt3–13
CLEQ4 14:54539Field goal3–16
CINQ4 11:294-7Turnover on downs3–16
CLEQ4 10:27318Touchdown3–24
CINQ4 9:1135Punt3–24
CLEQ4 7:3732Punt3–24
CINQ4 5:1532Punt3–24
CLEQ4 3:41610Punt3–24
CINQ4 0:2400End of half3–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow14/318200
Jake Browning0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon13564.30
Chris Evans2126.00
Trayveon Williams273.50
Ja'Marr Chase122.00
Jake Browning1-1-1.00
Joe Burrow1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase59390
Joe Mixon35170
Irv Smith35170
Tyler Boyd23100
Tee Higgins0800
Chris Evans11-10

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson16/2915411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb181065.90
Deshaun Watson5459.01
Jerome Ford15362.40
Elijah Moore2199.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elijah Moore37430
Amari Cooper37370
David Njoku23240
Nick Chubb44210
Jordan Akins11120
Donovan Peoples-Jones12120
Harrison Bryant2251
Marquise Goodwin0200
David Bell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.04