2022 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

13·32

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jacoby Brissett

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

45

Model margin

-0.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.013
  • 47.8%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.064EPA / rush+0.002
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +2.74CPOE+1.05
  • 47.3%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.91
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2021 · W18CIN @ CLE16–21CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:001054Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 10:47759Missed field goal0–0
CINQ1 6:1063Punt0–0
CLEQ1 2:08213Turnover0–0
CINQ1 1:3036Punt0–0
CLEQ2 14:54515Punt0–0
CINQ2 12:2038Punt0–0
CLEQ2 10:491078Touchdown0–8
CINQ2 5:0446Turnover0–8
CLEQ2 3:2546Turnover0–8
CINQ2 1:49523Missed field goal0–8
CLEQ2 0:40426Field goal0–11
CLEQ3 15:001175Touchdown0–18
CINQ3 8:573-5Punt0–18
CLEQ3 7:27860Touchdown0–25
CINQ3 3:101068Touchdown6–25
CLEQ4 14:15883Touchdown6–32
CINQ4 8:46560Touchdown13–32
CLEQ4 6:4035Punt13–32
CINQ4 5:3746Turnover on downs13–32
CLEQ4 4:03521End of half13–32

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow25/3523221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon8273.40
Samaje Perine177.00
Joe Burrow122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins36491
Hayden Hurst44420
Tyler Boyd35381
Joe Mixon79320
Trenton Irwin23270
Chris Evans11260
Samaje Perine33100
Trent Taylor1150
Mitchell Wilcox1130
Mike Thomas0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett17/2227810
Amari Cooper0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb231014.42
Kareem Hunt11423.80
D'Ernest Johnson4174.30
Jacoby Brissett6122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper571311
Donovan Peoples-Jones44810
Kareem Hunt44300
David Bell22270
Mike Woods1260
Nick Chubb1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.18