Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
45
Model margin
-0.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.013
- 47.8%Success rate44.1%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.064EPA / rush+0.002
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.8%
- +2.74CPOE+1.05
- 47.3%Third-down rate39.0%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 2.27Points / drive1.91
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/35 | 232 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 7 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 17/22 | 278 | 1 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 7 | 131 | 1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 4 | 4 | 81 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| David Bell | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Mike Woods | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.18