Closing spread
CIN -5.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play-0.176
- 46.4%Success rate35.2%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.212
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.115
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.1%
- +1.28CPOE-5.66
- 44.3%Third-down rate33.8%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 1.93Points / drive1.18
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 14/23 | 113 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 21 | 43 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 31/45 | 290 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Sampson | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Raheim Sanders | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 8 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 7 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 5 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.34