2025 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

17·16

Browns

Cleveland

QB Joe Flacco

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CIN -5.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Nothing filed.

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.012EPA / play-0.176
  • 46.4%Success rate35.2%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback-0.212
  • +0.012EPA / rush-0.115
  • 7.4%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +1.28CPOE-5.66
  • 44.3%Third-down rate33.8%
  • 69.0%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.18
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE
2021 · W18CIN @ CLE16–21CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:001467Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 7:322058Touchdown7–7
CINQ2 12:42619Punt7–7
CLEQ2 9:2932Punt7–7
CINQ2 8:31939Touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 4:181051Field goal14–10
CINQ2 0:2329End of half14–10
CLEQ3 15:001484Touchdown14–16
CINQ3 7:2038Punt14–16
CLEQ3 5:372-6Turnover14–16
CINQ3 4:53617Field goal17–16
CLEQ3 2:48736Turnover on downs17–16
CINQ4 14:1331Punt17–16
CLEQ4 13:10638Punt17–16
CINQ4 9:223-18Punt17–16
CLEQ4 6:56924Missed field goal17–16
CINQ4 2:2239Punt17–16
CLEQ4 1:5029Turnover17–16
CINQ4 1:243-10Punt17–16
CLEQ4 0:19331End of half17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow14/2311310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown21432.01
Joe Burrow231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins34330
Noah Fant45261
Ja'Marr Chase25260
Mike Gesicki13140
Chase Brown2380
Samaje Perine2260
Drew Sample0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco31/4529012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dylan Sampson12292.40
Jerome Ford681.30
Joe Flacco263.00
Raheim Sanders331.01
Harold Fannin Jr.133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy58660
Dylan Sampson88640
Harold Fannin Jr.79630
Cedric Tillman58521
David Njoku36370
Jamari Thrash1160
Isaiah Bond1150
Jerome Ford11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.34