Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
38
Model margin
+2.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:52 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 8:58 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:11 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 4:43 | 6 | 46 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 0:08 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:33 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q2 12:42 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LV | Q2 11:13 | 8 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q2 7:01 | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| LV | Q2 3:56 | 7 | 27 | Missed field goal | 6–0 |
| DEN | Q2 0:56 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| LV | Q2 0:16 | 2 | 10 | End of half | 13–0 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| DEN | Q3 9:00 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 7:35 | 8 | 25 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| DEN | Q3 3:35 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 1:58 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| DEN | Q4 14:57 | 10 | 48 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| LV | Q4 10:18 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 16–13 |
| DEN | Q4 6:19 | 8 | 22 | Punt | 16–13 |
| LV | Q4 2:13 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 16–13 |
| DEN | Q4 0:43 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 17/29 | 234 | 1 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Lynn | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 5 | 9 | 88 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 7 | 10 | 79 | 1 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.24
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.