Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
38
Model margin
+2.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 17/29 | 234 | 1 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Lynn | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 5 | 9 | 88 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 7 | 10 | 79 | 1 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.24
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.