2022 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

23·32

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRaiders
  • -0.077EPA / play+0.009
  • 39.4%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.057
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -1.65CPOE-2.03
  • 29.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.34Points / drive2.10
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2021 · W16DEN @ LV13–17RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LV
LVQ1 15:001060Field goal0–3
DENQ1 9:52410Punt0–3
LVQ1 7:063-6Punt0–3
DENQ1 4:54434Touchdown7–3
LVQ1 2:451265Touchdown7–10
DENQ2 11:46744Field goal10–10
LVQ2 8:0331Punt10–10
DENQ2 6:23523Opp touchdown10–16
DENQ2 3:15575Touchdown16–16
LVQ2 1:24954Field goal16–19
DENQ3 15:00512Punt16–19
LVQ3 11:3866Punt16–19
DENQ3 9:143-4Punt16–19
LVQ3 7:09977Field goal16–22
DENQ3 2:2749Punt16–22
LVQ3 1:0237Punt16–22
DENQ4 14:4631Punt16–22
LVQ4 13:05538Field goal16–25
DENQ4 9:50990Touchdown23–25
LVQ4 7:161075Touchdown23–32
DENQ4 2:0245Turnover on downs23–32
LVQ4 1:38310End of half23–32

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson17/2523720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson4297.31
Javonte Williams10282.80
Mike Boone3206.70
Melvin Gordon382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
KJ Hamler11550
Jerry Jeudy45531
Courtland Sutton57521
Kendall Hinton23390
Eric Saubert12250
Mike Boone1390
Montrell Washington1140
Russell Wilson1110
Melvin Gordon0100
Javonte Williams11-10

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr21/3418800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs281445.12
Derek Carr7405.70
Zamir White22412.00
Davante Adams144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams9131010
Mack Hollins35330
Josh Jacobs56310
Darren Waller35240
Brandon Bolden11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.87