Closing spread
LV -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.009
- 39.4%Success rate43.4%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.9%
- -1.65CPOE-2.03
- 29.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.34Points / drive2.10
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/25 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KJ Hamler | 1 | 1 | 55 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Kendall Hinton | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 21/34 | 188 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 28 | 144 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Derek Carr | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 9 | 13 | 101 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.87