Closing spread
LV -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.086
- 42.3%Success rate41.5%
- -0.005EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.151
- 8.6%Explosive rate5.9%
- +3.74CPOE-3.79
- 36.8%Third-down rate35.2%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.87Points / drive1.66
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 20/34 | 272 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Johnson | 4 | 5 | 88 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 6 | 79 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 20/31 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamir White | 25 | 112 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.42