Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
36
Model margin
+5.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play+0.011
- 41.0%Success rate42.8%
- -0.058EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.283EPA / rush-0.075
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.46CPOE+0.58
- 34.2%Third-down rate40.4%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.51Points / drive2.16
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 12/17 | 137 | 1 | 2 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 10/20 | 94 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 15 | 38 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 8 | 12 | 97 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 19/27 | 206 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.95