2024 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Gardner Minshew

18·34

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

36

Model margin

+5.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.131EPA / play+0.011
  • 41.0%Success rate42.8%
  • -0.058EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.283EPA / rush-0.075
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.46CPOE+0.58
  • 34.2%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.16
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS
2021 · W16DEN @ LV13–17RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–DEN
LVQ1 15:00470Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 12:57722Punt7–0
LVQ1 9:331268Field goal10–0
DENQ1 1:27841Field goal10–3
LVQ2 12:23664Opp touchdown10–10
LVQ2 8:4342Punt10–10
DENQ2 7:0538Punt10–10
LVQ2 5:3638Punt10–10
DENQ2 3:58631Punt10–10
LVQ2 1:33414Punt10–10
DENQ2 0:27323Field goal10–13
DENQ3 15:0047Punt10–13
LVQ3 13:3064Punt10–13
DENQ3 9:54645Touchdown10–20
LVQ3 6:54510Turnover10–20
DENQ3 4:16519Punt10–20
LVQ3 1:3144Punt10–20
DENQ4 15:00853Touchdown10–27
LVQ4 10:1210Turnover10–27
DENQ4 10:07439Touchdown10–34
LVQ4 8:141372Touchdown18–34
DENQ4 4:0135Punt18–34
LVQ4 3:04714Turnover on downs18–34
DENQ4 1:5500End of half18–34

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew12/1713712
Aidan O'Connell10/209401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah5428.41
Alexander Mattison15382.50
Gardner Minshew22211.00
Tre Tucker284.00
DJ Turner155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers812971
Jakobi Meyers69720
Alexander Mattison23230
Tre Tucker25180
DJ Turner14120
Ameer Abdullah3390

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix19/2720620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams13614.70
Jaleel McLaughlin6223.70
Marvin Mims Jr.11717.00
Bo Nix891.11

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Javonte Williams56500
Lil'Jordan Humphrey22480
Courtland Sutton25320
Troy Franklin12200
Adam Trautman11190
Josh Reynolds1291
Nate Adkins1180
Marvin Mims Jr.1170
Lucas Krull1150
Jaleel McLaughlin3431

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.95