Closing spread
DEN -9.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play+0.036
- 38.6%Success rate43.7%
- -0.130EPA / dropback+0.097
- -0.304EPA / rush-0.069
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.1%
- -0.91CPOE-1.38
- 34.1%Third-down rate42.4%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 1.25Points / drive2.10
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/26 | 143 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Jack Bech | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 16/28 | 150 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 18 | 77 | 4.3 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Bryant | 1 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 5 | 9 | 40 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.49