2025 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

7·10

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DEN -9.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.192EPA / play+0.036
  • 38.6%Success rate43.7%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.097
  • -0.304EPA / rush-0.069
  • 6.7%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -0.91CPOE-1.38
  • 34.1%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 1.25Points / drive2.10
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS
2021 · W16DEN @ LV13–17RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–DEN
LVQ1 15:00828Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:1439Punt0–0
LVQ1 7:07841Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 3:023-3Punt7–0
LVQ1 1:31512Punt7–0
DENQ2 14:31417Punt7–0
LVQ2 11:59835Punt7–0
DENQ2 8:5839Punt7–0
LVQ2 7:404-4Turnover on downs7–0
DENQ2 5:58663Touchdown7–7
LVQ2 2:413-2Punt7–7
DENQ2 1:50621Turnover7–7
LVQ2 0:2732End of half7–7
DENQ3 15:0033Punt7–7
LVQ3 13:5038Punt7–7
DENQ3 12:201048Missed field goal7–7
LVQ3 5:3410Turnover7–7
DENQ3 5:2244Punt7–7
LVQ3 2:5737Punt7–7
DENQ3 1:293-2Field goal7–10
LVQ3 0:053-1Punt7–10
DENQ4 13:5034Punt7–10
LVQ4 12:48647Punt7–10
DENQ4 8:3535Turnover7–10
LVQ4 7:10515Missed field goal7–10
DENQ4 4:26844End of half7–10

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith16/2614301
Kenny Pickett0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty19603.21
Geno Smith372.30
Tre Tucker177.00
Raheem Mostert144.00
Brock Bowers1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett56440
Brock Bowers13310
Tre Tucker23280
Michael Mayer34220
Raheem Mostert11110
Dont'e Thornton Jr.1240
Ashton Jeanty3530
Jack Bech0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix16/2815012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins18774.30
RJ Harvey492.30
Bo Nix5-2-0.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Bryant12430
Troy Franklin59401
Courtland Sutton34240
Evan Engram25120
RJ Harvey2390
J.K. Dobbins1170
Adam Trautman1120
Tyler Badie0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

3.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.1%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.49