Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
43
Model margin
+1.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutBrandon FacysonCBShin· DNP
- OutChandler JonesDENot injury related - personal matter· DNP
- QuestionableDeAndre CarterWRKnee· Limited
Broncos
- QuestionableJerry JeudyWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableRiley MossCBAbdomen· Limited
- LimitedPatrick SurtainCBAnkle
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play-0.046
- 41.5%Success rate42.3%
- -0.045EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.110
- 5.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.79CPOE+3.74
- 35.2%Third-down rate36.8%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.66Points / drive1.87
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | LV–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 9:28 | 16 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| LV | Q1 0:44 | 9 | 70 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| DEN | Q2 10:54 | 10 | 17 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LV | Q2 4:49 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 10–6 |
| DEN | Q2 2:30 | 9 | 58 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LV | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 32 | Missed field goal | 10–13 |
| LV | Q3 9:32 | 17 | 52 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q3 2:01 | 15 | 60 | Field goal | 10–16 |
| LV | Q4 8:54 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–16 |
| DEN | Q4 6:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–16 |
| LV | Q4 5:08 | 8 | 31 | End of half | 17–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 20/26 | 200 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 19 | 48 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 9 | 11 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 9 | 10 | 81 | 2 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 27/34 | 177 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Brandon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.48