Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play-0.077
- 43.4%Success rate39.4%
- +0.057EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.124
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- -2.03CPOE-1.65
- 39.7%Third-down rate29.1%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 2.10Points / drive1.34
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 23/37 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 24 | 109 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 13 | 141 | 2 |
| Mack Hollins | 6 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 24/31 | 247 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 17 | 49 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.54