2022 · Week 11 · Division

Final / OT

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

22·16

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.009EPA / play-0.077
  • 43.4%Success rate39.4%
  • +0.057EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.124
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -2.03CPOE-1.65
  • 39.7%Third-down rate29.1%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.34
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS
2021 · W16DEN @ LV13–17RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–DEN
LVQ1 15:00946Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:52874Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 6:221462Missed field goal0–7
DENQ2 12:26734Field goal0–10
LVQ2 9:19885Touchdown7–10
DENQ2 5:361389Missed field goal7–10
DENQ3 15:003-1Punt7–10
LVQ3 12:52420Field goal10–10
DENQ3 10:37710Punt10–10
LVQ3 7:44624Punt10–10
DENQ3 4:35838Field goal10–13
LVQ4 14:5632Punt10–13
DENQ4 13:523-6Punt10–13
LVQ4 12:021026Field goal13–13
DENQ4 7:06752Field goal13–16
LVQ4 3:3034Punt13–16
DENQ4 3:05514Punt13–16
LVQ4 1:43671Field goal16–16
DENQ4 0:16316End of half16–16
LVOT367Touchdown22–16

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr23/3730720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs241094.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams7131412
Mack Hollins69520
Josh Jacobs34510
Foster Moreau13330
Keelan Cole12210
Ameer Abdullah3450
Brandon Bolden1140
Jakob Johnson1100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson24/3124700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray17492.91
Melvin Gordon8313.90
Russell Wilson188.00
Chase Edmonds263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton57800
Kendall Hinton33570
Melvin Gordon55390
Greg Dulcich45300
Latavius Murray44230
Eric Saubert22160
Brandon Johnson1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.54