Closing spread
DEN -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.131
- 42.8%Success rate41.0%
- +0.062EPA / dropback-0.058
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.283
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.58CPOE-1.46
- 40.4%Third-down rate34.2%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.16Points / drive1.51
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 25/42 | 273 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 8 | -2 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 8 | 10 | 97 | 2 |
| Devaughn Vele | 6 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 25/42 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
| Desmond Ridder | 5/10 | 64 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sincere McCormick | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 10 | 15 | 121 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 7 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 4 | 10 | 38 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 5 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Michael Mayer | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.9%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.54