2024 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

29·19

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Gardner Minshew

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

DEN -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRaiders
  • +0.011EPA / play-0.131
  • 42.8%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback-0.058
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.283
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +0.58CPOE-1.46
  • 40.4%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.16Points / drive1.51
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS
2021 · W16DEN @ LV13–17RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LV
LVQ1 15:00631Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:09948Punt0–0
LVQ1 9:0936Punt0–0
DENQ1 7:54862Field goal3–0
LVQ1 2:47740Touchdown3–7
DENQ2 13:36735Field goal6–7
LVQ2 9:211164Field goal6–10
DENQ2 3:48817Field goal9–10
LVQ2 0:53648Field goal9–13
DENQ3 15:0032Punt9–13
LVQ3 13:22412Turnover9–13
DENQ3 11:33218Touchdown16–13
LVQ3 10:49527Punt16–13
DENQ3 7:52945Punt16–13
LVQ3 3:0236Punt16–13
DENQ3 1:27926Field goal19–13
LVQ4 12:05823Field goal19–16
DENQ4 8:59770Touchdown26–16
LVQ4 5:301066Field goal26–19
DENQ4 3:3830Punt26–19
LVQ4 3:123-10Turnover26–19
DENQ4 2:2132Field goal29–19
LVQ4 1:561156End of half29–19

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix25/4227320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaleel McLaughlin7446.30
Audric Estimé3155.00
Bo Nix155.00
Javonte Williams8-2-0.30
Marvin Mims Jr.2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton810972
Devaughn Vele69800
Marvin Mims Jr.35440
Troy Franklin24310
Javonte Williams2460
Lil'Jordan Humphrey2340
Adam Trautman1230
Jaleel McLaughlin0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew25/4223011
Desmond Ridder5/106400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sincere McCormick5336.60
Ameer Abdullah8283.50
Gardner Minshew252.50
Desmond Ridder133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers10151210
Tre Tucker78820
Brock Bowers410380
Ameer Abdullah56371
Michael Mayer22110
DJ Turner2450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.9%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.54