2025 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

24·17

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

DEN -8.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-3.1est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRaiders
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.192
  • 43.7%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.097EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.304
  • 8.1%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -1.38CPOE-0.91
  • 42.4%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.25
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS
2021 · W16DEN @ LV13–17RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LV
DENQ1 15:001581Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 6:061070Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 15:00941Punt7–7
LVQ2 10:036-11Opp touchdown14–7
LVQ2 6:29414Punt14–7
DENQ2 4:421047Turnover on downs14–7
LVQ2 0:2243Turnover on downs14–7
DENQ2 0:0310End of half14–7
LVQ3 15:0032Punt14–7
DENQ3 13:181586Touchdown21–7
LVQ3 4:051255Turnover on downs21–7
DENQ4 14:131885Field goal24–7
LVQ4 3:56757Touchdown24–14
DENQ4 2:17616Turnover on downs24–14
LVQ4 0:58439Field goal24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix31/3821200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
RJ Harvey17754.41
Jaleel McLaughlin4225.50
Tyler Badie4164.00
Bo Nix3155.01
Marvin Mims Jr.122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton610620
Pat Bryant44320
Lil'Jordan Humphrey33270
RJ Harvey66250
Adam Trautman22170
Troy Franklin34110
Jaleel McLaughlin1190
Evan Engram2280
Tyler Badie1150
Marvin Mims Jr.1150

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith13/2111610
Kenny Pickett8/119710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty10303.00
Kenny Pickett166.00
Geno Smith144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jack Bech66500
Brock Bowers45461
Tyler Lockett34410
Shedrick Jackson11251
Tre Tucker25240
Ian Thomas22170
Ashton Jeanty2480
Raheem Mostert1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.8%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.08