Closing spread
DEN -8.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-3.1est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.192
- 43.7%Success rate38.6%
- +0.097EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.304
- 8.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- -1.38CPOE-0.91
- 42.4%Third-down rate34.1%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.10Points / drive1.25
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 31/38 | 212 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Pat Bryant | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 6 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 13/21 | 116 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 8/11 | 97 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Bech | 6 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Shedrick Jackson | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.8%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.08