Closing spread
MIA -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play+0.072
- 37.3%Success rate41.4%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.186EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- 34.2%Third-down rate39.4%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.17Points / drive1.88
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.036
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino | 25/38 | 393 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Collins | 21 | 76 | 3.6 | 1 |
| J.J. Johnson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Dan Marino | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 10 | 15 | 166 | 1 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 4 | 6 | 123 | 1 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Cecil Collins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 17/24 | 274 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -13 | -6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 3 | 8 | 91 | 1 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 4 | 4 | 81 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 4 | 5 | 64 | 2 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Paul Shields | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+4.54