1999 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Dan Marino

34·31

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIA -1.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapColts
  • -0.116EPA / play+0.072
  • 37.3%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.186EPA / rush-0.106
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • 34.2%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 42.4%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
  • 1.17Points / drive1.88
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.036

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1MIA @ IND8–33IND
2024 · W7MIA @ IND10–16IND
2021 · W4IND @ MIA27–17IND
2019 · W10MIA @ IND16–12MIA
2018 · W12MIA @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W16IND @ MIA18–12IND
2013 · W2MIA @ IND24–20MIA
2012 · W9MIA @ IND20–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–IND
INDQ1 15:00753Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 11:1939Punt0–3
INDQ1 9:40940Turnover0–3
MIAQ1 5:501066Field goal3–3
INDQ1 1:4100Punt3–3
MIAQ1 1:4134Punt3–3
INDQ1 0:0039Punt3–3
MIAQ2 13:31620Field goal6–3
INDQ2 9:45876Touchdown6–10
MIAQ2 4:39756Field goal9–10
INDQ2 0:2400End of half9–10
MIAQ3 15:0037Punt9–10
INDQ3 13:24978Touchdown9–17
MIAQ3 8:341085Turnover on downs9–17
INDQ3 3:01520Punt9–17
MIAQ4 14:52450Touchdown15–23
INDQ4 13:0800Touchdown15–24
MIAQ4 12:52668Touchdown22–24
INDQ4 9:45467Touchdown22–31
MIAQ4 8:14741Field goal25–31
INDQ4 3:205-10Safety27–31
MIAQ4 1:54864Touchdown34–31
INDQ4 0:2710Turnover34–31
MIAQ4 0:1600End of half34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dan Marino25/3839320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cecil Collins21763.61
J.J. Johnson362.00
Stanley Pritchett111.00
Dan Marino1-1-1.00
Tony Martin1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Martin10151661
Oronde Gadsden461231
O.J. McDuffie45420
Stanley Pritchett23180
Troy Drayton11110
Cecil Collins0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning17/2427431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James22813.70
Peyton Manning2-13-6.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison38911
Terrence Wilkins44810
Marcus Pollard45642
Ken Dilger22220
Jerome Pathon12120
Paul Shields1130
Edgerrin James2210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+4.54