Closing spread
IND -3
Total
44
Model margin
+5.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.045
- 44.3%Success rate40.6%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.246EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- +3.08CPOE-5.38
- 35.4%Third-down rate37.8%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.92Points / drive1.87
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 7/13 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 8/13 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 7 | 7 | 96 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 10/24 | 129 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Trey Sermon | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+5.15
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.07