2024 · Week 7

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tim Boyle

10·16

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Anthony Richardson

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

44

Model margin

+5.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapColts
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.045
  • 44.3%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.025
  • -0.246EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +3.08CPOE-5.38
  • 35.4%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.87
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1MIA @ IND8–33IND
2021 · W4IND @ MIA27–17IND
2019 · W10MIA @ IND16–12MIA
2018 · W12MIA @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W16IND @ MIA18–12IND
2013 · W2MIA @ IND24–20MIA
2012 · W9MIA @ IND20–23IND
2009 · W2IND @ MIA27–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–IND
INDQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:3234Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:0830Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:471253Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 5:561270Turnover7–0
MIAQ1 0:18744Punt7–0
INDQ2 11:3436Punt7–0
MIAQ2 10:00828Punt7–0
INDQ2 5:54519Punt7–0
MIAQ2 2:52865Field goal10–0
INDQ2 0:22336Field goal10–3
MIAQ3 15:00420Punt10–3
INDQ3 13:0735Punt10–3
MIAQ3 11:4817Turnover10–3
INDQ3 11:33433Touchdown10–10
MIAQ3 9:083-1Punt10–10
INDQ3 7:2931Punt10–10
MIAQ3 6:27641Turnover10–10
INDQ3 2:5636Punt10–10
MIAQ3 1:253-2Punt10–10
INDQ3 0:181169Field goal10–13
MIAQ4 8:41541Missed field goal10–13
INDQ4 5:14836Field goal10–16
MIAQ4 1:51837Turnover on downs10–16
INDQ4 0:0700End of half10–16

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley7/138710
Tim Boyle8/137400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane15775.10
Raheem Mostert11504.50
Jaylen Wright5336.60
Tyler Huntley5204.00
Tyreek Hill155.00
Tim Boyle144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonnu Smith77961
Jaylen Waddle12110
Malik Washington2390
Tyreek Hill1280
De'Von Achane2380
Julian Hill1240
Odell Beckham Jr.0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Richardson10/2412900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Richardson14564.00
Tyler Goodson14513.61
Trey Sermon8364.50
Ashton Dulin11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman35630
Adonai Mitchell23300
Alec Pierce25150
Trey Sermon11130
Will Mallory1150
Josh Downs1330
Mo Alie-Cox0100
Kylen Granson0200
Andrew Ogletree0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.15
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.07