Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play-0.032
- 40.1%Success rate40.5%
- -0.023EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.206EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- -4.10CPOE+1.20
- 40.5%Third-down rate31.0%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.47Points / drive1.42
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 8/15 | 99 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 9/14 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 15 | 85 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Dan Herron | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 26/38 | 329 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 15 | 31 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 11 | 111 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 10 | 93 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Matt Hazel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56