2015 · Week 16

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Hasselbeck

18·12

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+2.6est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.083EPA / play-0.032
  • 40.1%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.023EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.206EPA / rush-0.111
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -4.10CPOE+1.20
  • 40.5%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.42
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1MIA @ IND8–33IND
2024 · W7MIA @ IND10–16IND
2021 · W4IND @ MIA27–17IND
2019 · W10MIA @ IND16–12MIA
2018 · W12MIA @ IND24–27IND
2013 · W2MIA @ IND24–20MIA
2012 · W9MIA @ IND20–23IND
2009 · W2IND @ MIA27–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–MIA
INDQ1 15:00930Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:403-4Safety2–0
INDQ1 9:16770Touchdown8–0
MIAQ1 6:011059Turnover8–0
INDQ1 0:5537Punt8–0
MIAQ2 15:001174Touchdown8–6
INDQ2 8:07880Touchdown15–6
MIAQ2 4:42622Punt15–6
INDQ2 1:08311End of half15–6
MIAQ3 15:0059Punt15–6
INDQ3 12:48411Punt15–6
MIAQ3 10:241374Field goal15–9
INDQ3 3:5069Punt15–9
MIAQ3 0:293-2Punt15–9
INDQ4 14:01944Field goal18–9
MIAQ4 8:30878Field goal18–12
INDQ4 5:1787Punt18–12
MIAQ4 2:481251Turnover on downs18–12
INDQ4 0:2300End of half18–12

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck8/159900
Charlie Whitehurst9/147800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore15855.72
Dan Herron6142.30
Phillip Dorsett122.00
Charlie Whitehurst1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton47640
Andre Johnson35390
Phillip Dorsett23290
Donte Moncrief22150
Coby Fleener24130
Frank Gore24100
Jack Doyle2370
Dwayne Allen0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill26/3832901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller15312.11
Ryan Tannehill12828.00
Jay Ajayi9232.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry7111110
DeVante Parker410930
Lamar Miller56360
Jordan Cameron33340
Damien Williams33330
Kenny Stills33140
Dion Sims1180
Matt Hazel0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.56