2013 · Week 2

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

24·20

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapColts
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.047
  • 41.1%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.009EPA / dropback+0.108
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -0.18CPOE-1.44
  • 35.5%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.89
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1MIA @ IND8–33IND
2024 · W7MIA @ IND10–16IND
2021 · W4IND @ MIA27–17IND
2019 · W10MIA @ IND16–12MIA
2018 · W12MIA @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W16IND @ MIA18–12IND
2012 · W9MIA @ IND20–23IND
2009 · W2IND @ MIA27–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–IND
INDQ1 15:00746Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 12:02658Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 9:431169Field goal7–3
MIAQ1 4:07380Touchdown14–3
INDQ1 2:541080Touchdown14–10
MIAQ2 13:01622Punt14–10
INDQ2 10:4837Punt14–10
MIAQ2 9:14628Punt14–10
INDQ2 6:09535Punt14–10
MIAQ2 4:0939Punt14–10
INDQ2 2:42678Touchdown14–17
MIAQ2 1:26544Field goal17–17
MIAQ3 15:0030Turnover17–17
INDQ3 13:57624Field goal17–20
MIAQ3 11:3547Punt17–20
INDQ3 8:5939Punt17–20
MIAQ3 7:07669Touchdown24–20
INDQ3 4:40515Punt24–20
MIAQ3 2:321044Turnover on downs24–20
INDQ4 11:45727Turnover24–20
MIAQ4 8:20928Punt24–20
INDQ4 3:571058Turnover on downs24–20
MIAQ4 1:27310End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill23/3431910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller14694.91
Daniel Thomas8303.80
Charles Clay111.01
Ryan Tannehill410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace9111151
Charles Clay571090
Brian Hartline58680
Brandon Gibson12110
Daniel Thomas11100
Lamar Miller2260

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck25/4332111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw15654.31
Andrew Luck4389.50
Donald Brown7304.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton6121240
Coby Fleener48691
Reggie Wayne58460
Griff Whalen23280
Ahmad Bradshaw33190
Dominique Jones12130
Darrius Heyward-Bey25100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.42