Closing spread
IND -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.047
- 41.1%Success rate44.6%
- +0.009EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.18CPOE-1.44
- 35.5%Third-down rate37.8%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.51Points / drive1.89
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/34 | 319 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 9 | 11 | 115 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 5 | 7 | 109 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Brandon Gibson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 25/43 | 321 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 12 | 124 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Dominique Jones | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.42