2025 · Week 1

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

8·33

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapColts
  • -0.021EPA / play+0.083
  • 42.1%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.028EPA / rush+0.052
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +1.82CPOE+0.62
  • 34.1%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.74
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7MIA @ IND10–16IND
2021 · W4IND @ MIA27–17IND
2019 · W10MIA @ IND16–12MIA
2018 · W12MIA @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W16IND @ MIA18–12IND
2013 · W2MIA @ IND24–20MIA
2012 · W9MIA @ IND20–23IND
2009 · W2IND @ MIA27–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–IND
INDQ1 15:00862Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 10:37515Turnover0–3
INDQ1 8:121484Touchdown0–10
MIAQ2 14:5426Turnover0–10
INDQ2 14:14542Touchdown0–17
MIAQ2 12:01822Punt0–17
INDQ2 6:461667Field goal0–20
MIAQ3 15:00619Turnover0–20
INDQ3 11:19758Field goal0–23
MIAQ3 7:30744Turnover on downs0–23
INDQ3 4:301784Touchdown0–30
MIAQ4 10:14970Touchdown8–30
INDQ4 6:21621Field goal8–33
MIAQ4 2:23935End of half8–33

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa14/2311412
Zach Wilson5/83200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane7557.90
Malik Washington199.00
Tua Tagovailoa177.00
Ollie Gordon II242.00
Zach Wilson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill46400
Jaylen Waddle45300
Tanner Conner24200
De'Von Achane34201
Malik Washington25200
Dee Eskridge1290
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine1270
Ollie Gordon II11-10

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/2927210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor18713.90
DJ Giddens12413.40
Daniel Jones7263.72
Ashton Dulin11515.00
Tyler Warren133.00
Ulysses Bentley IV100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman68801
Tyler Warren79760
Alec Pierce13360
Jonathan Taylor33270
Adonai Mitchell22210
Mo Alie-Cox11200
Josh Downs23120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.80