Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.021EPA / play+0.083
- 42.1%Success rate46.6%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.028EPA / rush+0.052
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.1%
- +1.82CPOE+0.62
- 34.1%Third-down rate43.0%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.92Points / drive2.74
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 14/23 | 114 | 1 | 2 |
| Zach Wilson | 5/8 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Tanner Conner | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/29 | 272 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 0 |
| DJ Giddens | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ulysses Bentley IV | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 8 | 80 | 1 |
| Tyler Warren | 7 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.80