2019 · Week 10

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

16·12

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Brian Hoyer

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -11

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapColts
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.009
  • 41.5%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.002EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.268EPA / rush+0.022
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.66CPOE-3.86
  • 35.1%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.94
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1MIA @ IND8–33IND
2024 · W7MIA @ IND10–16IND
2021 · W4IND @ MIA27–17IND
2018 · W12MIA @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W16IND @ MIA18–12IND
2013 · W2MIA @ IND24–20MIA
2012 · W9MIA @ IND20–23IND
2009 · W2IND @ MIA27–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–IND
MIAQ1 15:00424Turnover0–0
INDQ1 13:06740Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 10:29751Field goal3–0
INDQ1 6:4434Punt3–0
MIAQ1 5:091361Turnover on downs3–0
INDQ2 14:47956Punt3–0
MIAQ2 9:4368Punt3–0
INDQ2 6:5849Turnover on downs3–0
MIAQ2 5:2543Punt3–0
INDQ2 3:3810Turnover3–0
MIAQ2 3:26312Touchdown10–0
INDQ2 1:5230Punt10–0
MIAQ2 1:253-1Punt10–0
INDQ2 0:1500End of half10–0
INDQ3 15:0032Punt10–0
MIAQ3 14:014-3Punt10–0
INDQ3 12:14956Field goal10–3
MIAQ3 7:5039Punt10–3
INDQ3 5:41933Field goal10–6
MIAQ3 0:3826Turnover10–6
INDQ4 14:54734Touchdown10–12
MIAQ4 11:301255Field goal13–12
INDQ4 5:4510Turnover13–12
MIAQ4 5:3735Field goal16–12
INDQ4 3:311267Turnover on downs16–12
MIAQ4 0:4000End of half16–12

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/3316901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kalen Ballage20432.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick4235.81
Patrick Laird242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker510690
Allen Hurns24320
Mike Gesicki36280
Jakeem Grant22150
Patrick Laird22150
Clive Walford1180
Kalen Ballage4420
Albert Wilson1300
Myles Gaskin1100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer18/3920413

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack19743.90
Jordan Wilkins3206.70
Nyheim Hines3144.70
Jonathan Williams210.50
Brian Hoyer200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron512560
Jack Doyle34441
Chester Rogers24310
Nyheim Hines47300
Zach Pascal27260
Marcus Johnson1390
Marlon Mack1180
Mo Alie-Cox0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +117.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.20
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.09