Closing spread
IND -11
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.009
- 41.5%Success rate44.5%
- +0.002EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.268EPA / rush+0.022
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.66CPOE-3.86
- 35.1%Third-down rate41.9%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.62Points / drive1.94
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/33 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalen Ballage | 20 | 43 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Patrick Laird | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Clive Walford | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 18/39 | 204 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 19 | 74 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 12 | 56 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.20
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.09