2018 · Week 12

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

24·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -9

Total

52.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapColts
  • -0.111EPA / play+0.059
  • 40.1%Success rate48.0%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.097
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.24CPOE+0.63
  • 30.3%Third-down rate50.5%
  • 65.0%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.45Points / drive2.25
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1MIA @ IND8–33IND
2024 · W7MIA @ IND10–16IND
2021 · W4IND @ MIA27–17IND
2019 · W10MIA @ IND16–12MIA
2015 · W16IND @ MIA18–12IND
2013 · W2MIA @ IND24–20MIA
2012 · W9MIA @ IND20–23IND
2009 · W2IND @ MIA27–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–IND
MIAQ1 15:00675Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 12:22575Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 9:37837Punt7–7
INDQ1 5:04339Turnover7–7
MIAQ1 3:33716Punt7–7
INDQ1 0:4739Punt7–7
MIAQ2 14:5333Punt7–7
INDQ2 12:37631Punt7–7
MIAQ2 10:16312Punt7–7
INDQ2 7:331358Touchdown7–14
MIAQ2 1:44275Touchdown14–14
INDQ2 1:0010Turnover14–14
MIAQ2 0:5315Turnover14–14
INDQ2 0:4610Turnover14–14
MIAQ2 0:3600End of half14–14
INDQ3 15:0038Punt14–14
MIAQ3 13:32736Field goal17–14
INDQ3 9:141045Missed field goal17–14
MIAQ3 3:31957Touchdown24–14
INDQ4 13:361157Field goal24–17
MIAQ4 8:263-5Punt24–17
INDQ4 7:43789Touchdown24–24
MIAQ4 4:2534Punt24–24
INDQ4 2:38644Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill17/2520420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore14674.80
Kenyan Drake8324.01
Ryan Tannehill3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Leonte Carroo12741
Kenyan Drake56641
Durham Smythe22270
Danny Amendola11130
Frank Gore12100
DeVante Parker33100
Kenny Stills1460
Mike Gesicki1150
Brice Butler0100
Kalen Ballage22-50

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck30/3734332
Jacoby Brissett1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack15855.70
Nyheim Hines9283.10
Andrew Luck252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton7101250
Chester Rogers34490
Eric Ebron57452
Dontrelle Inman34400
Jordan Wilkins33320
Nyheim Hines22220
Jack Doyle44161
Marlon Mack22110
Andrew Luck1140
Ryan Grant1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.3%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.76