Closing spread
IND -9
Total
52.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play+0.059
- 40.1%Success rate48.0%
- -0.100EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.097
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.24CPOE+0.63
- 30.3%Third-down rate50.5%
- 65.0%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.45Points / drive2.25
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/25 | 204 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonte Carroo | 1 | 2 | 74 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 2 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 30/37 | 343 | 3 | 2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 15 | 85 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 10 | 125 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 7 | 45 | 2 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.3%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.58
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.76