Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.049EPA / play+0.035
- 42.9%Success rate45.1%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.077
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.1%
- -2.89CPOE-4.46
- 37.7%Third-down rate42.3%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.37Points / drive1.62
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/38 | 290 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 8 | 12 | 107 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 6 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 30/48 | 433 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donnie Avery | 5 | 8 | 108 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 11 | 102 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 7 | 9 | 78 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 6 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.87