2012 · Week 9

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

20·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapColts
  • -0.049EPA / play+0.035
  • 42.9%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.077
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -2.89CPOE-4.46
  • 37.7%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 58.9%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.62
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1MIA @ IND8–33IND
2024 · W7MIA @ IND10–16IND
2021 · W4IND @ MIA27–17IND
2019 · W10MIA @ IND16–12MIA
2018 · W12MIA @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W16IND @ MIA18–12IND
2013 · W2MIA @ IND24–20MIA
2009 · W2IND @ MIA27–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–IND
INDQ1 15:00855Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 9:341137Field goal3–0
INDQ1 4:151048Touchdown3–7
MIAQ1 0:47785Touchdown10–7
INDQ2 13:25880Field goal10–10
MIAQ2 9:37978Touchdown17–10
INDQ2 5:07744Missed field goal17–10
MIAQ2 2:24311Punt17–10
INDQ2 1:141068Field goal17–13
MIAQ2 0:0700End of half17–13
MIAQ3 15:00515Punt17–13
INDQ3 12:58932Punt17–13
MIAQ3 9:06623Punt17–13
INDQ3 6:161092Touchdown17–20
MIAQ3 1:49952Field goal20–20
INDQ4 13:121269Field goal20–23
MIAQ4 5:58518Punt20–23
INDQ4 3:5136Punt20–23
MIAQ4 2:39747Turnover on downs20–23
INDQ4 1:37322End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill22/3829010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush10414.11
Daniel Thomas6376.20
Lamar Miller177.00
Ryan Tannehill1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline8121070
Davone Bess69670
Charles Clay11311
Jabar Gaffney23270
Reggie Bush23250
Daniel Thomas24250
Anthony Fasano1480
Marlon Moore0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck30/4843320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vick Ballard16603.80
Delone Carter8313.90
Andrew Luck155.00
T.Y. Hilton111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donnie Avery581080
T.Y. Hilton6111021
Reggie Wayne79781
Dwayne Allen67750
Vick Ballard36380
LaVon Brazill25250
Donald Brown1170
Weslye Saunders0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.87