Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.046
- 44.6%Success rate41.8%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.028
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.180
- 9.8%Explosive rate6.7%
- -2.41CPOE-0.02
- 41.9%Third-down rate41.1%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 2.35Points / drive1.58
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 24/32 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 16 | 103 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Marlon Mack | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 5 | 42 | 2 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 20/30 | 199 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brown | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 9 | 77 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.72
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.58