2021 · Week 4

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

27·17

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jacoby Brissett

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.060EPA / play-0.046
  • 44.6%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.028
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.180
  • 9.8%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -2.41CPOE-0.02
  • 41.9%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 2.35Points / drive1.58
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1MIA @ IND8–33IND
2024 · W7MIA @ IND10–16IND
2019 · W10MIA @ IND16–12MIA
2018 · W12MIA @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W16IND @ MIA18–12IND
2013 · W2MIA @ IND24–20MIA
2012 · W9MIA @ IND20–23IND
2009 · W2IND @ MIA27–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00717Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:1242Field goal0–3
INDQ1 9:5454Punt0–3
MIAQ1 5:581250Punt0–3
INDQ2 13:10616Punt0–3
MIAQ2 8:4734Punt0–3
INDQ2 8:011075Touchdown7–3
MIAQ2 2:4734Punt7–3
INDQ2 1:43716Punt7–3
MIAQ2 0:191-8End of half7–3
INDQ3 15:001179Touchdown14–3
MIAQ3 8:2937Punt14–3
INDQ3 6:16421Punt14–3
INDQ3 3:53417Field goal17–3
MIAQ3 0:544-2Turnover17–3
INDQ4 14:4735Field goal20–3
MIAQ4 13:17954Touchdown20–10
INDQ4 10:401063Touchdown27–10
MIAQ4 6:15675Touchdown27–17
INDQ4 4:24857End of half27–17

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz24/3222820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor161036.41
Marlon Mack10222.20
Carson Wentz581.60
Nyheim Hines263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman68590
Zach Pascal45440
Mo Alie-Cox35422
Jack Doyle11240
Parris Campbell23220
Ashton Dulin11170
Jonathan Taylor33110
Nyheim Hines2250
Kylen Granson1230
Marlon Mack1210

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett20/3019920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malcolm Brown8232.90
Jacoby Brissett382.70
Myles Gaskin231.50
Salvon Ahmed310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker49771
Mike Gesicki56571
Jaylen Waddle34330
Salvon Ahmed22120
Albert Wilson12110
Will Fuller1260
Durham Smythe2260
Malcolm Brown1140
Adam Shaheen0100
Jakeem Grant11-70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.72
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.58