1999 · Week 5

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

14·16

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Elvis Grbac

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

+4.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.027
  • 37.4%Success rate38.7%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.105
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.01
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.134

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–7 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15KC @ NE27–17KC
2020 · W4NE @ KC10–26KC
2019 · W14KC @ NE23–16KC
2018 · playoffsNE @ KC37–31NE
2018 · W6KC @ NE40–43NE
2017 · W1KC @ NE42–27KC
2015 · playoffsKC @ NE20–27NE
2014 · W4NE @ KC14–41KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–KC
NEQ1 15:00317Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:50738Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:193-5Turnover0–0
KCQ1 8:0937Field goal0–3
NEQ1 6:02892Touchdown7–3
KCQ1 1:57530Punt7–3
NEQ2 14:4838Punt7–3
KCQ2 13:223-1Punt7–3
NEQ2 11:5410Turnover7–3
KCQ2 11:3933Punt7–3
NEQ2 10:23623Punt7–3
KCQ2 7:4447Turnover7–3
NEQ2 6:281041Turnover7–3
KCQ2 1:53549Turnover7–3
NEQ2 0:51829End of half7–3
KCQ3 15:001476Touchdown7–10
NEQ3 6:54625Missed field goal7–10
KCQ3 4:43848Field goal7–13
NEQ3 0:23918Turnover7–13
KCQ4 12:571363Field goal7–16
NEQ4 4:52877Touchdown14–16
KCQ4 2:43410Punt14–16
NEQ4 0:30453Missed field goal14–16
KCQ4 0:0400End of half14–16

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe23/4533422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen11534.80
Lamont Warren252.50
Kevin Faulk320.70
Drew Bledsoe210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Simmons7101070
Terry Glenn510921
Terry Allen33390
Shawn Jefferson27351
Lamont Warren24250
Ben Coates12180
Rod Rutledge1180
Tony Carter1250
Kevin Faulk0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac18/2619801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Morris15453.00
Rashaan Shehee5285.60
Elvis Grbac200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Horn45750
Tony Gonzalez34400
Kevin Lockett45400
Derrick Alexander25250
Andre Rison1160
Lonnie Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.80