Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
+4.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.027
- 37.4%Success rate38.7%
- -0.062EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.105
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- 35.1%Third-down rate39.1%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.19Points / drive1.01
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.134
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 23/45 | 334 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Simmons | 7 | 10 | 107 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 5 | 10 | 92 | 1 |
| Terry Allen | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 18/26 | 198 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Morris | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rashaan Shehee | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 4 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.80