Closing spread
KC -10
Total
39.5
Model margin
-3.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.189
- 43.8%Success rate38.9%
- +0.082EPA / dropback-0.226
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.128
- 7.6%Explosive rate5.5%
- +1.52CPOE-3.39
- 44.9%Third-down rate30.8%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.89Points / drive1.00
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/37 | 305 | 2 | 2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1/1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 9 | 9 | 91 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 23/31 | 180 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Harris | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Bailey Zappe | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 7 | 9 | 66 | 1 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.2%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.25
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-2.96