2018 · CON

Final / OT

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

37·31

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 19°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

56.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Nothing filed.

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.090EPA / play+0.236
  • 47.3%Success rate50.0%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.349
  • -0.031EPA / rush+0.018
  • 10.7%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +1.03CPOE+4.64
  • 41.8%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
  • 2.32Points / drive3.03
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–7 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15KC @ NE27–17KC
2020 · W4NE @ KC10–26KC
2019 · W14KC @ NE23–16KC
2018 · W6KC @ NE40–43NE
2017 · W1KC @ NE42–27KC
2015 · playoffsKC @ NE20–27NE
2014 · W4NE @ KC14–41KC
2011 · W11KC @ NE3–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–KC
NEQ1 15:001580Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 6:556-11Punt7–0
NEQ1 4:331143Turnover7–0
KCQ2 13:3739Punt7–0
NEQ2 11:57832Punt7–0
KCQ2 7:32749Punt7–0
NEQ2 3:08890Touchdown14–0
KCQ2 0:271-15End of half14–0
KCQ3 15:00474Touchdown14–7
NEQ3 12:56614Punt14–7
KCQ3 10:1959Punt14–7
NEQ3 7:38618Field goal17–7
KCQ3 4:021062Touchdown17–14
NEQ4 14:51951Turnover on downs17–14
KCQ4 9:3332Punt17–14
NEQ4 8:3922Turnover17–14
KCQ4 7:55223Touchdown17–21
NEQ4 7:451160Touchdown24–21
KCQ4 3:32740Touchdown24–28
NEQ4 2:03760Touchdown31–28
KCQ4 0:39348Field goal31–31
NEQ4 0:0800End of half31–31
NEOT1375Touchdown37–31

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady30/4634812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel291133.92
Rex Burkhead12413.42
James White6233.80
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman710960
Rob Gronkowski611790
James White46490
Chris Hogan57450
Phillip Dorsett13291
Rex Burkhead44230
Cordarrelle Patterson24180

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes16/3129530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Williams10303.01
Patrick Mahomes2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins481140
Damien Williams58662
Tyreek Hill13420
Demarcus Robinson11270
Travis Kelce36231
Spencer Ware11210
Demetrius Harris1120
Chris Conley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.00