Closing spread
KC -3
Total
56.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play+0.236
- 47.3%Success rate50.0%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.349
- -0.031EPA / rush+0.018
- 10.7%Explosive rate12.1%
- +1.03CPOE+4.64
- 41.8%Third-down rate47.8%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
- 2.32Points / drive3.03
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/46 | 348 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 29 | 113 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Rex Burkhead | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 2 |
| James White | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 11 | 79 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 16/31 | 295 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 8 | 114 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 5 | 8 | 66 | 2 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 6 | 23 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.00