2018 · Week 6

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

40·43

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NE -4

Total

59.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.236EPA / play+0.090
  • 50.0%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.349EPA / dropback+0.181
  • +0.018EPA / rush-0.031
  • 12.1%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +4.64CPOE+1.03
  • 47.8%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 75.5%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
  • 3.03Points / drive2.32
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–7 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15KC @ NE27–17KC
2020 · W4NE @ KC10–26KC
2019 · W14KC @ NE23–16KC
2018 · playoffsNE @ KC37–31NE
2017 · W1KC @ NE42–27KC
2015 · playoffsKC @ NE20–27NE
2014 · W4NE @ KC14–41KC
2011 · W11KC @ NE3–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NE
NEQ1 15:00735Turnover on downs0–0
KCQ1 12:31735Field goal3–0
NEQ1 9:05840Field goal3–3
KCQ1 5:1810Turnover3–9
NEQ1 5:0114Touchdown3–10
KCQ1 4:57431Field goal6–10
NEQ1 3:251075Touchdown6–17
KCQ2 12:521074Field goal9–17
NEQ2 6:21837Touchdown9–24
KCQ2 1:571070Turnover9–24
NEQ2 0:0400End of half9–24
KCQ3 15:00375Touchdown16–24
NEQ3 13:271165Field goal16–27
KCQ3 7:17851Field goal19–27
NEQ3 3:3644Turnover19–27
KCQ3 2:23429Touchdown26–27
NEQ3 0:561154Field goal26–30
KCQ4 10:2233Touchdown33–30
NEQ4 8:38775Touchdown33–37
KCQ4 5:2533Punt33–37
NEQ4 3:50447Field goal33–40
KCQ4 3:15175Touchdown40–40
NEQ4 3:03665Field goal40–43

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/3635242

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt10808.00
Patrick Mahomes294.50
Spencer Ware252.50
Damien Williams111.00
Tyreek Hill100.00
Sammy Watkins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill7121423
Kareem Hunt561051
Travis Kelce59610
Chris Conley11190
Sammy Watkins24180
Spencer Ware2390

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady24/3534010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel241064.42
James White6396.50
Kenjon Barner3165.30
Julian Edelman177.00
Cordarrelle Patterson133.00
Tom Brady320.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski34970
Chris Hogan44780
Julian Edelman47541
James White57530
Josh Gordon59420
Cordarrelle Patterson11130
Sony Michel0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.80