Closing spread
NE -4
Total
59.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.236EPA / play+0.090
- 50.0%Success rate47.3%
- +0.349EPA / dropback+0.181
- +0.018EPA / rush-0.031
- 12.1%Explosive rate10.7%
- +4.64CPOE+1.03
- 47.8%Third-down rate41.8%
- 75.5%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 3.03Points / drive2.32
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/36 | 352 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 80 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 12 | 142 | 3 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 6 | 105 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/35 | 340 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 24 | 106 | 4.4 | 2 |
| James White | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 4 | 97 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 4 | 4 | 78 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| James White | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 5 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.80