Closing spread
NE -3
Total
45
Model margin
+1.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play+0.026
- 46.4%Success rate42.6%
- +0.173EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.32CPOE-1.58
- 45.6%Third-down rate40.0%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.38Points / drive1.99
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 14/23 | 159 | 1 | 2 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 6/7 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 6 | 10 | 119 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/26 | 248 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knile Davis | 16 | 107 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 18 | 92 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 9 | 93 | 1 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 3 | 16 | 2 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Hammond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.26