Closing spread
KC -7
Total
52.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.177
- 46.5%Success rate50.2%
- -0.040EPA / dropback+0.288
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.056
- 9.4%Explosive rate11.0%
- -2.06CPOE+2.60
- 41.3%Third-down rate49.5%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 1.88Points / drive2.85
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 15/24 | 130 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 5/13 | 60 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 17 | 100 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Zuber | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damiere Byrd | 5 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| James White | 7 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 3 | 6 | 21 | 1 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 19/29 | 236 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Deon Yelder | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.14
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.23