2020 · Week 4

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Brian Hoyer

10·26

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 73°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

KC -7

Total

52.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

KC perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.177
  • 46.5%Success rate50.2%
  • -0.040EPA / dropback+0.288
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.056
  • 9.4%Explosive rate11.0%
  • -2.06CPOE+2.60
  • 41.3%Third-down rate49.5%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.85
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–7 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15KC @ NE27–17KC
2019 · W14KC @ NE23–16KC
2018 · playoffsNE @ KC37–31NE
2018 · W6KC @ NE40–43NE
2017 · W1KC @ NE42–27KC
2015 · playoffsKC @ NE20–27NE
2014 · W4NE @ KC14–41KC
2011 · W11KC @ NE3–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–KC
KCQ1 15:001070Field goal0–3
NEQ1 10:0839Punt0–3
KCQ1 8:4235Punt0–3
NEQ1 7:07521Punt0–3
KCQ1 4:38782Field goal0–6
NEQ1 0:1310Turnover0–6
KCQ1 0:0328Turnover0–6
NEQ2 14:511260Field goal3–6
KCQ2 9:31610Punt3–6
NEQ2 5:361344End of half3–6
NEQ3 15:0036Punt3–6
KCQ3 14:02520Punt3–6
NEQ3 11:091374Turnover3–6
KCQ3 3:52785Touchdown3–13
NEQ3 0:42759Touchdown10–13
KCQ4 13:451042Touchdown10–19
NEQ4 8:5710Opp touchdown10–26
NEQ4 8:481138Turnover10–26
KCQ4 3:1837Punt10–26
NEQ4 2:12646Turnover on downs10–26
KCQ4 1:3000End of half10–26

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer15/2413001
Jarrett Stidham5/136012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris171005.90
Rex Burkhead11454.10
James White3217.00
Brian Hoyer188.00
Isaiah Zuber188.00
Jarrett Stidham231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Damiere Byrd510800
James White78380
Julian Edelman36350
N'Keal Harry36211
Gunner Olszewski11110
Rex Burkhead1150
Ryan Izzo0300

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes19/2923620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire16644.00
Patrick Mahomes8283.50
Darrel Williams122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce37700
Tyreek Hill46641
Sammy Watkins47430
Mecole Hardman44271
Clyde Edwards-Helaire33270
Deon Yelder1150
Darrel Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.14
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.23