2019 · Week 14

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

23·16

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.135EPA / play+0.010
  • 47.0%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.247EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +1.86CPOE-2.06
  • 48.7%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.85
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–7 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15KC @ NE27–17KC
2020 · W4NE @ KC10–26KC
2018 · playoffsNE @ KC37–31NE
2018 · W6KC @ NE40–43NE
2017 · W1KC @ NE42–27KC
2015 · playoffsKC @ NE20–27NE
2014 · W4NE @ KC14–41KC
2011 · W11KC @ NE3–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NE
NEQ1 15:00744Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 12:3431Turnover0–7
NEQ1 11:413-1Punt0–7
KCQ1 10:58963Field goal3–7
NEQ1 7:121255Missed field goal3–7
KCQ1 2:00968Touchdown10–7
NEQ2 13:0410Turnover10–7
KCQ2 12:53730Touchdown17–7
NEQ2 9:33742Turnover on downs17–7
KCQ2 7:02718Punt17–7
NEQ2 3:4930Punt17–7
KCQ2 2:481069Field goal20–7
NEQ2 0:5934End of half20–7
KCQ3 15:001052Field goal23–7
NEQ3 8:463-5Punt23–7
KCQ3 7:194-4Punt23–7
NEQ3 5:14219Touchdown23–13
KCQ3 4:23828Turnover23–13
NEQ3 0:07922Field goal23–16
KCQ4 11:42415Punt23–16
NEQ4 10:17630Punt23–16
KCQ4 7:2239Punt23–16
NEQ4 5:04968Turnover on downs23–16
KCQ4 1:0600End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes26/4028311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy11393.50
Spencer Ware5112.20
Tyreek Hill284.00
Darwin Thompson471.80
Patrick Mahomes661.00
Travis Kelce144.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce79660
Tyreek Hill68620
Sammy Watkins48500
Mecole Hardman11481
Darwin Thompson45360
Byron Pringle11140
Demarcus Robinson12120
LeSean McCoy1340
Spencer Ware12-90

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady19/3616911
James White1/13500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James White6335.50
Tom Brady22010.00
Rex Burkhead7152.10
Brandon Bolden11010.01
Julian Edelman188.00
Sony Michel581.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman812951
Jakobi Meyers13350
James White57270
Matt LaCosse24140
Mohamed Sanu11130
N'Keal Harry11120
Benjamin Watson1370
Sony Michel1110
Rex Burkhead0100
Phillip Dorsett0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.52