Closing spread
NE -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.135EPA / play+0.010
- 47.0%Success rate42.6%
- +0.247EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.86CPOE-2.06
- 48.7%Third-down rate39.1%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 2.59Points / drive1.85
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26/40 | 283 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 48 | 1 |
| Darwin Thompson | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/36 | 169 | 1 | 1 |
| James White | 1/1 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 12 | 95 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.52