Closing spread
NE -8
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play+0.137
- 44.2%Success rate49.2%
- +0.170EPA / dropback+0.254
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.042
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- +4.58CPOE+3.49
- 39.2%Third-down rate40.8%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 2.21Points / drive2.52
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 28/35 | 368 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 17 | 148 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 8 | 133 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 5 | 98 | 2 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/36 | 267 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gillislee | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 3 |
| James White | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 6 | 7 | 100 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.36