2017 · Week 1

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

42·27

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -8

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.082EPA / play+0.137
  • 44.2%Success rate49.2%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback+0.254
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.042
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +4.58CPOE+3.49
  • 39.2%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.52
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–7 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15KC @ NE27–17KC
2020 · W4NE @ KC10–26KC
2019 · W14KC @ NE23–16KC
2018 · playoffsNE @ KC37–31NE
2018 · W6KC @ NE40–43NE
2015 · playoffsKC @ NE20–27NE
2014 · W4NE @ KC14–41KC
2011 · W11KC @ NE3–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NE
NEQ1 15:001161Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 12:0817Turnover0–7
NEQ1 12:00817Turnover on downs0–7
KCQ1 9:251290Touchdown7–7
NEQ1 3:03862Field goal7–10
KCQ2 14:5631Punt7–10
NEQ2 13:171279Touchdown7–17
KCQ2 7:2756Punt7–17
NEQ2 3:4434Punt7–17
KCQ2 2:471476Touchdown14–17
NEQ2 0:1300End of half14–17
KCQ3 15:00529Punt14–17
NEQ3 11:5356Punt20–17
KCQ3 9:28175Touchdown21–17
NEQ3 9:19626Punt21–17
KCQ3 7:0831Punt21–17
NEQ3 6:22523Touchdown21–24
KCQ3 5:0138Punt21–24
NEQ3 2:50663Field goal21–27
KCQ3 0:09395Touchdown28–27
NEQ4 14:07535Turnover on downs28–27
KCQ4 12:2139Punt28–27
NEQ4 10:28516Punt28–27
KCQ4 8:55760Touchdown35–27
NEQ4 5:143-7Punt35–27
KCQ4 4:15279Touchdown42–27
NEQ4 4:003-13Punt42–27
KCQ4 2:4437End of half42–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith28/3536840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt171488.71
Charcandrick West12121.01
Tyreek Hill252.50
Travis Kelce144.00
De'Anthony Thomas144.00
Alex Smith530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill781331
Kareem Hunt55982
Chris Conley24430
Travis Kelce57400
Albert Wilson55370
Demetrius Harris22151
Charcandrick West1140
Ross Travis0100
De'Anthony Thomas11-20

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady16/3626700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Gillislee15453.03
James White10383.80
Chris Hogan3175.70
Rex Burkhead3155.00
Dion Lewis294.50
Tom Brady200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola671000
Brandin Cooks37880
Rob Gronkowski26330
James White35300
Chris Hogan1580
Rex Burkhead1380
Dwayne Allen0200
Phillip Dorsett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.36