2015 · DIV

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

20·27

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -6

Total

44

Model margin

+2.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.033EPA / play+0.089
  • 44.0%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.075
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +0.03CPOE-0.32
  • 36.6%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.25
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–7 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15KC @ NE27–17KC
2020 · W4NE @ KC10–26KC
2019 · W14KC @ NE23–16KC
2018 · playoffsNE @ KC37–31NE
2018 · W6KC @ NE40–43NE
2017 · W1KC @ NE42–27KC
2014 · W4NE @ KC14–41KC
2011 · W11KC @ NE3–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NE
NEQ1 15:001180Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 10:231664Field goal3–7
NEQ1 1:52614Punt3–7
KCQ2 14:51725Punt3–7
NEQ2 11:2932Punt3–7
KCQ2 10:373-1Punt3–7
NEQ2 8:591288Touchdown3–14
KCQ2 3:23957Field goal6–14
NEQ2 0:1200End of half6–14
KCQ3 15:001049Turnover6–14
NEQ3 10:31569Touchdown6–21
KCQ3 8:241375Touchdown13–21
NEQ3 2:12757Field goal13–24
KCQ4 14:463-3Punt13–24
NEQ4 12:26419Field goal13–27
KCQ4 10:20829Turnover on downs13–27
NEQ4 7:2836Punt13–27
KCQ4 6:291783Touchdown20–27
NEQ4 1:13210End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith29/5024610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charcandrick West17613.61
Alex Smith9444.90
Knile Davis6305.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Avant45690
Albert Wilson511571
Chris Conley59330
Jeremy Maclin23230
Travis Kelce69230
Charcandrick West24150
Knile Davis23130
Demetrius Harris11100
Frankie Hammond1120

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/4230220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson6162.70
Julian Edelman11111.00
Tom Brady661.01
James White155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman10161000
Rob Gronkowski78832
Keshawn Martin24570
James White23390
Danny Amendola23180
Brandon LaFell3560
Steven Jackson1120
Brandon Bolden11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+2.12