Closing spread
NE -6
Total
44
Model margin
+2.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play+0.089
- 44.0%Success rate44.0%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.075
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- +0.03CPOE-0.32
- 36.6%Third-down rate41.0%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.92Points / drive2.25
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 29/50 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Avant | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 5 | 11 | 57 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 5 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Frankie Hammond | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/42 | 302 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1 |
| James White | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 10 | 16 | 100 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 8 | 83 | 2 |
| Keshawn Martin | 2 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.12