1999 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

3·14

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 95°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.084EPA / play-0.176
  • 38.6%Success rate35.9%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback-0.148
  • -0.207EPA / rush-0.226
  • 6.4%Explosive rate5.9%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.14Points / drive0.87
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.8%
  • -0.039EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. ARI are 12-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–ARI
NYGQ1 15:001239Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:28830Punt0–0
NYGQ1 5:4338Punt0–0
ARIQ1 3:4331Punt0–0
NYGQ1 2:1021Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 1:23430Touchdown0–7
NYGQ2 14:5832Turnover0–7
ARIQ2 14:003-14Punt0–7
NYGQ2 12:2734Punt0–7
ARIQ2 10:53434Missed field goal0–7
NYGQ2 7:59732Missed field goal0–7
ARIQ2 4:22868Touchdown0–14
NYGQ2 0:3317End of half0–14
ARIQ3 15:0033Punt0–14
NYGQ3 13:2232Punt0–14
ARIQ3 11:07739Missed field goal0–14
NYGQ3 6:5238Punt0–14
ARIQ3 5:15513Punt0–14
NYGQ3 2:35413Punt0–14
ARIQ3 0:213-2Punt0–14
NYGQ4 14:391043Field goal3–14
ARIQ4 10:1332Punt3–14
NYGQ4 8:421380Turnover on downs3–14
ARIQ4 4:0540Punt3–14
NYGQ4 3:25521Turnover on downs3–14
ARIQ4 2:0523Punt3–14
NYGQ4 0:21225End of half3–14

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins24/3820201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gary Brown18673.70
Kerry Collins4235.80
Tiki Barber177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ike Hilliard57780
Amani Toomer512340
Pete Mitchell46300
Tiki Barber44230
David Patten12100
Howard Cross1190
Gary Brown1110
Joe Jurevicius0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer13/1915610
Dave Brown4/84100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman8202.50
Adrian Murrell1480.60
Jake Plummer331.01
Mario Bates100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston8121011
Frank Sanders58370
Terry Hardy22310
Michael Pittman11210
Adrian Murrell1170
Derek Brown0100
Mac Cody0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.10