Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.176
- 38.6%Success rate35.9%
- -0.016EPA / dropback-0.148
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.226
- 6.4%Explosive rate5.9%
- 35.7%Third-down rate33.3%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.14Points / drive0.87
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.039EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. ARI are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 24/38 | 202 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Brown | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 5 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 12 | 34 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Gary Brown | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 13/19 | 156 | 1 | 0 |
| Dave Brown | 4/8 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 14 | 8 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Mario Bates | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 8 | 12 | 101 | 1 |
| Frank Sanders | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Derek Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.10