2011 · Week 4

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

31·27

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.050EPA / play-0.077
  • 44.0%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.076
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +1.53CPOE-5.82
  • 38.3%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.38
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. ARI are 12-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI
2008 · W12NYG @ ARI37–29NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–ARI
NYGQ1 15:0042Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 14:3737Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 13:0231Punt0–3
ARIQ1 11:34830Turnover0–3
NYGQ1 7:56929Punt0–3
ARIQ1 2:171774Field goal0–6
NYGQ2 7:571069Touchdown7–6
ARIQ2 2:544-3Punt7–6
NYGQ2 1:4934Punt7–6
ARIQ2 1:0839Punt7–6
NYGQ2 0:29448Field goal10–6
ARIQ2 0:0100End of half10–6
ARIQ3 15:00971Touchdown10–13
NYGQ3 10:24528Punt10–13
ARIQ3 7:24745Punt10–13
NYGQ3 3:421-15Turnover10–13
ARIQ3 3:3514Touchdown10–19
ARIQ3 3:0011Touchdown10–20
ARIQ3 2:5500Touchdown10–20
NYGQ3 2:551455Touchdown17–20
ARIQ4 12:0742Turnover17–20
NYGQ4 10:48614Punt17–20
ARIQ4 8:25677Touchdown17–27
NYGQ4 5:16780Touchdown24–27
ARIQ4 3:3736Punt24–27
NYGQ4 3:10248Touchdown31–27
ARIQ4 2:39846Turnover on downs31–27
NYGQ4 0:5100End of half31–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning27/4032120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw12393.31
Brandon Jacobs9182.01
Eli Manning3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks10141621
Victor Cruz69980
Jake Ballard33331
Ahmad Bradshaw45110
Mario Manningham15100
D.J. Ware1120
Brandon Jacobs1100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb20/3423701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells271385.13
Alfonso Smith2168.00
Kevin Kolb210.50
LaRod Stephens-Howling111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald8111020
Early Doucet36420
Todd Heap46410
Rob Housler11160
LaRod Stephens-Howling1190
Jeff King1130
Chris Wells0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.58
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.47