Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play-0.077
- 44.0%Success rate41.4%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.076
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- +1.53CPOE-5.82
- 38.3%Third-down rate32.0%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 1.84Points / drive1.38
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. ARI are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 27/40 | 321 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 10 | 14 | 162 | 1 |
| Victor Cruz | 6 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 20/34 | 237 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 27 | 138 | 5.1 | 3 |
| Alfonso Smith | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 11 | 102 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.47