2020 · Week 14

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

26·7

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

47

Model margin

+0.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapGiants
  • +0.051EPA / play-0.057
  • 46.0%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.067
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.07CPOE-2.04
  • 40.2%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.57
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYG are 6-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI
2008 · W12NYG @ ARI37–29NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00514Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 12:5748Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 10:4237Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:03522Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 6:30512Punt3–0
ARIQ1 3:15633Punt3–0
NYGQ1 0:1233Punt3–0
ARIQ2 13:591039Field goal6–0
NYGQ2 8:2400Touchdown6–0
ARIQ2 8:17421Touchdown13–0
NYGQ2 6:53620Punt13–0
ARIQ2 4:20744Punt13–0
NYGQ2 1:4432Punt13–0
ARIQ2 0:18432End of half13–0
ARIQ3 15:001177Touchdown20–0
NYGQ3 8:52775Touchdown20–7
ARIQ3 5:38733Punt20–7
NYGQ3 1:4239Punt20–7
ARIQ3 0:39734Field goal23–7
NYGQ4 12:383-1Punt23–7
ARIQ4 10:46526Punt23–7
NYGQ4 8:00612Punt23–7
ARIQ4 5:17626Field goal26–7
NYGQ4 2:4156Turnover26–7
ARIQ4 1:4200End of half26–7

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray24/3524410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake23803.51
Kyler Murray13473.60
Chase Edmonds7324.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins9111360
Dan Arnold24271
Chase Edmonds45210
Maxx Williams22170
Christian Kirk34140
Larry Fitzgerald23100
Kenyan Drake11100
KeeSean Johnson1290

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones11/2112700
Colt McCoy2/31800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman12574.80
Dion Lewis2147.01
Alfred Morris372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate12390
Sterling Shepard35350
Darius Slayton38310
Evan Engram24180
Wayne Gallman34160
Kaden Smith1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

40.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.67