Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
47
Model margin
+0.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.057
- 46.0%Success rate42.1%
- +0.087EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.07CPOE-2.04
- 40.2%Third-down rate35.1%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.19Points / drive1.57
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. NYG are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 24/35 | 244 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 11 | 136 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 11/21 | 127 | 0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 2/3 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
40.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.67