Closing spread
NYG -9
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play+0.062
- 45.3%Success rate44.1%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.178
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.102
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.4%
- +3.71CPOE+2.61
- 36.7%Third-down rate42.5%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 1.75Points / drive2.02
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. NYG are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 20/36 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 13 | 83 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Jerheme Urban | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/37 | 243 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 13 | 76 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95