2009 · Week 7

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

24·17

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NYG -9

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

1.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapGiants
  • -0.026EPA / play+0.062
  • 45.3%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.178
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.102
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +3.71CPOE+2.61
  • 36.7%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.02
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYG are 6-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2008 · W12NYG @ ARI37–29NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NYG
ARIQ1 15:00439Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 12:56518Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:2232Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:41323Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 7:21628Punt0–0
NYGQ1 5:371025Punt0–0
ARIQ1 0:26412Turnover0–0
NYGQ2 14:06329Touchdown0–7
ARIQ2 13:2836Punt0–7
NYGQ2 11:543-3Punt0–7
ARIQ2 9:593-2Punt0–7
NYGQ2 8:303-4Punt0–7
ARIQ2 7:27746Touchdown7–7
NYGQ2 4:18475Touchdown7–14
ARIQ2 2:09451Field goal10–14
NYGQ2 0:1500End of half10–14
NYGQ3 15:0031Punt10–14
ARIQ3 14:01755Touchdown17–14
NYGQ3 10:193-2Punt17–14
ARIQ3 8:3156Punt17–14
NYGQ3 6:0438Turnover17–14
ARIQ3 4:09320Touchdown24–14
NYGQ3 2:32620Punt24–14
ARIQ4 14:4032Punt24–14
NYGQ4 13:11942Field goal24–17
ARIQ4 8:14520Punt24–17
NYGQ4 4:48239Turnover24–17
ARIQ4 3:5236Punt24–17
NYGQ4 2:521057Turnover24–17
ARIQ4 1:0800End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner20/3623111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells14674.81
Tim Hightower492.31
LaRod Stephens-Howling1-1-1.00
Kurt Warner3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald613830
Anquan Boldin37750
Steve Breaston12230
Ben Patrick23140
Tim Hightower25110
Chris Wells33100
Anthony Becht1180
Jason Wright1161
Jerheme Urban1110

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning19/3724313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs13765.81
Ahmad Bradshaw12322.70
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks47801
Steve Smith410690
Mario Manningham48470
Kevin Boss34350
Brandon Jacobs24110
Domenik Hixon1260
Ahmad Bradshaw11-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +92.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.95