Closing spread
NYG -5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.165EPA / play-0.055
- 38.2%Success rate41.0%
- -0.143EPA / dropback-0.082
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.014
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.19CPOE-2.77
- 30.9%Third-down rate39.6%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.09Points / drive1.88
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. ARI are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 26/37 | 321 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Hyatt | 2 | 2 | 89 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 6 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 6 | 7 | 29 | 1 |
| Parris Campbell | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 21/31 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 23 | 106 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3 | 41 | 13.7 | 1 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 10 | 54 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| James Conner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.53
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.19