2023 · Week 2

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

31·28

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Joshua Dobbs

State Farm Stadium · closed

Closing spread

NYG -5

Total

40

Model margin

-0.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.165EPA / play-0.055
  • 38.2%Success rate41.0%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback-0.082
  • -0.205EPA / rush-0.014
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +0.19CPOE-2.77
  • 30.9%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.88
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. ARI are 12-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI
2008 · W12NYG @ ARI37–29NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00638Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 12:12313Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:52966Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 6:11519Punt0–7
ARIQ1 3:18780Touchdown0–14
NYGQ2 14:513-4Punt0–14
ARIQ2 13:45939Field goal0–17
NYGQ2 8:431039Turnover0–17
ARIQ2 4:20618Field goal0–20
NYGQ2 1:09514End of half0–20
NYGQ3 15:00375Touchdown7–20
ARIQ3 13:43965Touchdown7–28
NYGQ3 9:341268Touchdown14–28
ARIQ3 3:27841Punt14–28
NYGQ4 14:411385Touchdown21–28
ARIQ4 8:5134Punt21–28
NYGQ4 7:31774Touchdown28–28
ARIQ4 4:2539Punt28–28
NYGQ4 2:31756Field goal31–28
ARIQ4 0:19319End of half31–28

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones26/3732121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley17633.71
Daniel Jones9596.61
Matt Breida155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalin Hyatt22890
Darren Waller68760
Darius Slayton36620
Isaiah Hodgins45401
Saquon Barkley67291
Parris Campbell46210
Sterling Shepard1140

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs21/3122810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner231064.61
Joshua Dobbs34113.71
Keaontay Ingram263.00
Emari Demercado1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz68560
Michael Wilson33560
Marquise Brown610541
Trey McBride23320
Rondale Moore11140
Zach Pascal1190
Emari Demercado2270
James Conner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.53
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.19