2014 · Week 2

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Drew Stanton

25·14

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapGiants
  • -0.024EPA / play-0.014
  • 39.1%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.165EPA / rush-0.147
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -4.59CPOE+0.79
  • 40.7%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.78
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYG are 6-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI
2008 · W12NYG @ ARI37–29NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NYG
ARIQ1 15:001260Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 10:18848Turnover7–0
ARIQ1 6:381035Field goal10–0
NYGQ1 1:31919Punt10–0
ARIQ2 12:21842Punt10–0
NYGQ2 7:501390Touchdown10–7
ARIQ2 0:37332End of half10–7
NYGQ3 15:0036Punt10–7
ARIQ3 13:0731Punt10–7
NYGQ3 11:36642Punt10–7
ARIQ3 8:4931Punt10–7
NYGQ3 6:401054Touchdown10–14
ARIQ3 2:031559Field goal13–14
NYGQ4 11:3834Opp touchdown19–14
NYGQ4 10:1000Field goal19–14
ARIQ4 10:0237Field goal22–14
NYGQ4 9:111260Turnover22–14
ARIQ4 4:30526Punt22–14
NYGQ4 3:1944Turnover on downs22–14
ARIQ4 2:3635Field goal25–14
NYGQ4 1:13414Turnover25–14
ARIQ4 0:0400End of half25–14

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton14/2916700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington15916.10
Jonathan Dwyer9313.41
Robert Hughes122.00
John Brown122.00
Drew Stanton2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald610510
John Carlson23430
John Brown34280
Michael Floyd16190
Troy Niklas11160
Andre Ellington13100
Robert Hughes0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning26/3927722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings18643.60
Andre Williams8121.50
Eli Manning155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Donnell79810
Victor Cruz510600
Rashad Jennings44450
Rueben Randle47391
Preston Parker12290
Jerrel Jernigan22150
Andre Williams2470
Daniel Fells1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.27