Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.024EPA / play-0.014
- 39.1%Success rate41.2%
- +0.056EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.165EPA / rush-0.147
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- -4.59CPOE+0.79
- 40.7%Third-down rate43.5%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.54Points / drive1.78
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. NYG are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 14/29 | 167 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 15 | 91 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| John Brown | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 26/39 | 277 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 18 | 64 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Donnell | 7 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 4 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.27