2019 · Week 7

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

27·21

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapGiants
  • +0.014EPA / play-0.064
  • 42.7%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback-0.034
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.129
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.81CPOE-1.92
  • 36.0%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.56
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYG are 6-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI
2008 · W12NYG @ ARI37–29NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NYG
ARIQ1 15:001375Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 8:14610Turnover7–0
ARIQ1 5:38332Touchdown14–0
NYGQ1 4:153-7Punt14–0
ARIQ1 2:591044Field goal17–0
NYGQ2 13:30574Touchdown17–7
ARIQ2 11:283-10Opp touchdown17–14
ARIQ2 9:521042Punt17–14
NYGQ2 5:521353Punt17–14
ARIQ2 0:4600End of half17–14
NYGQ3 15:0031Punt17–14
ARIQ3 12:57414Punt17–14
NYGQ3 11:12914Turnover17–14
ARIQ3 7:26336Touchdown24–14
NYGQ3 6:051249Missed field goal24–14
ARIQ3 1:076-2Punt24–14
NYGQ4 12:57882Touchdown24–21
ARIQ4 8:13621Punt24–21
NYGQ4 4:235-5Turnover24–21
ARIQ4 2:2830Field goal27–21
NYGQ4 2:096-8Turnover on downs27–21
ARIQ4 0:3400End of half27–21

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray14/2110400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Edmonds271264.73
Kyler Murray10282.80
David Johnson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pharoh Cooper44290
Chase Edmonds24240
Larry Fitzgerald13120
Charles Clay12120
Andy Isabella2280
KeeSean Johnson1260
Maxx Williams1150
Damiere Byrd1240
Trent Sherfield1140

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/3522311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley18724.01
Daniel Jones4358.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate611800
Bennie Fowler45350
Rhett Ellison22331
Cody Latimer45330
Darius Slayton22280
Saquon Barkley3580
Evan Engram1560

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.74