Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.064
- 42.7%Success rate41.8%
- +0.020EPA / dropback-0.034
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.129
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.81CPOE-1.92
- 36.0%Third-down rate37.8%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
- 1.85Points / drive1.56
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. NYG are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 14/21 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 27 | 126 | 4.7 | 3 |
| Kyler Murray | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharoh Cooper | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/35 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 6 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.74