2017 · Week 16

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

0·23

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Drew Stanton

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

39

Model margin

+2.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.106EPA / play-0.129
  • 41.1%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.207
  • 6.2%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -3.91CPOE-4.25
  • 32.5%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 51.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.20
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. ARI are 12-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI
2008 · W12NYG @ ARI37–29NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–ARI
NYGQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:49511Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:3535Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:45956Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 5:29822Turnover0–3
ARIQ1 2:233-9Punt0–3
NYGQ1 1:0538Punt0–3
ARIQ2 15:0033Punt0–3
NYGQ2 13:27732Missed field goal0–3
ARIQ2 8:58534Punt0–3
NYGQ2 6:05624Punt0–3
ARIQ2 3:051064Touchdown0–10
NYGQ2 1:01539Turnover0–10
ARIQ2 0:0900End of half0–10
ARIQ3 15:001175Touchdown0–16
NYGQ3 9:25627Punt0–16
ARIQ3 6:55412Punt0–16
NYGQ3 4:56638Turnover on downs0–16
ARIQ3 2:19413Turnover0–16
NYGQ3 0:4731Opp touchdown0–23
NYGQ4 14:50522Punt0–23
ARIQ4 13:27514Turnover0–23
NYGQ4 10:13610Turnover on downs0–23
ARIQ4 9:0933Punt0–23
NYGQ4 7:20845Turnover on downs0–23
ARIQ4 3:57514Punt0–23
NYGQ4 0:2015End of half0–23

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning27/4526302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman10181.80
Orleans Darkwa6101.70
Paul Perkins3103.30
Eli Manning155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rhett Ellison47600
Sterling Shepard58450
Wayne Gallman68440
Roger Lewis411400
Jerell Adams44310
Hunter Sharp22250
Evan Engram12120
Travis Rudolph1260

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton20/3420922
Larry Fitzgerald1/12100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerwynn Williams16513.20
Drew Stanton210.50
Bronson Hill1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald9151191
John Brown24281
Jaron Brown24270
D.J. Foster33240
Kerwynn Williams23140
Jermaine Gresham1140
J.J. Nelson0100
Ricky Seals-Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.71