Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
39
Model margin
+2.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play-0.129
- 41.1%Success rate38.8%
- -0.099EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.207
- 6.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- -3.91CPOE-4.25
- 32.5%Third-down rate35.7%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.19Points / drive1.20
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. ARI are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 27/45 | 263 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Ellison | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 4 | 11 | 40 | 0 |
| Jerell Adams | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Hunter Sharp | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Travis Rudolph | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 20/34 | 209 | 2 | 2 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1/1 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Bronson Hill | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 15 | 119 | 1 |
| John Brown | 2 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.71