Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-2.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cardinalsedge mapGiants
- +0.139EPA / play+0.363
- 48.6%Success rate59.1%
- +0.270EPA / dropback+0.667
- -0.044EPA / rush+0.059
- 5.6%Explosive rate6.1%
- +4.61CPOE+13.38
- 46.2%Third-down rate90.0%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 2.35Points / drive3.97
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. NYG are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.01
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.79