2026 · Week 4

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

24·36

Giants

New York

QB Jameis Winston

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

ARI -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapGiants
  • -0.024EPA / play+0.027
  • 44.6%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.102
  • 4.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +0.50CPOE-2.00
  • 38.2%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 50.1%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.15
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYG are 6-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI
2008 · W12NYG @ ARI37–29NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NYG
ARIQ1 15:00858Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 11:08956Field goal7–3
ARIQ1 6:36674Touchdown14–3
NYGQ1 3:05513Field goal14–6
ARIQ2 14:552-3Turnover14–6
NYGQ2 13:5635Punt14–6
ARIQ2 13:0034Punt14–6
NYGQ2 11:2337Punt14–6
ARIQ2 9:5932Punt14–6
NYGQ2 8:27841Touchdown14–12
ARIQ2 4:3038Turnover14–12
NYGQ2 3:09226Touchdown14–19
ARIQ2 2:243-16Punt14–19
NYGQ2 1:03414Turnover14–19
ARIQ2 0:24333Field goal17–19
NYGQ3 15:0057Turnover17–19
ARIQ3 12:291135Touchdown24–19
NYGQ3 7:20976Touchdown24–27
ARIQ3 1:44519Punt24–27
NYGQ4 13:55542Turnover24–27
ARIQ4 11:0833Punt24–27
NYGQ4 9:20616Punt24–27
ARIQ4 6:0038Punt24–27
NYGQ4 4:47616Field goal24–30
ARIQ4 2:111345Opp touchdown24–36

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett21/3516623

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremiyah Love14634.50
Tyler Allgeier8425.31
Jacoby Brissett4184.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wilson713950
Trey McBride712310
Elijah Higgins22191
Marvin Harrison Jr.14121
Hunter Long11100
Tyler Allgeier2270
Jeremiyah Love11-80

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston18/2925032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Skattebo18583.20
Najee Harris9303.30
Tyrone Tracy Jr.1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers671121
Isaiah Likely712660
Malachi Fields23521
Theo Johnson11111
Cam Skattebo1180
Patrick Ricard1210
Braxton Berrios0100
Darnell Mooney0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.63