1999 · Week 5 · Division
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
GB -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.149EPA / play-0.016
- 35.1%Success rate40.8%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.154
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.8%
- 35.3%Third-down rate36.6%
- 37.2%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.03Points / drive1.48
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.164EPA / play allowed-0.019
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. GB are 7-11-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:05 | 4 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 11:59 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 10:33 | 6 | 19 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| TB | Q1 7:37 | 10 | 60 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| GB | Q1 2:37 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q1 1:06 | 3 | 26 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| GB | Q2 14:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TB | Q2 13:11 | 5 | 10 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| GB | Q2 10:43 | 5 | 35 | Punt | 10–10 |
| TB | Q2 6:59 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| GB | Q2 3:33 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| TB | Q2 0:57 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 13–13 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 86 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| TB | Q3 10:50 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 13–13 |
| GB | Q3 9:00 | 7 | 35 | Field goal | 13–16 |
| TB | Q3 6:52 | 12 | 43 | Field goal | 16–16 |
| GB | Q4 14:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 16–16 |
| TB | Q4 12:07 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 16–16 |
| GB | Q4 10:37 | 10 | 64 | Field goal | 16–19 |
| TB | Q4 5:57 | 3 | -8 | Turnover | 16–19 |
| GB | Q4 4:48 | 6 | 15 | Missed field goal | 16–19 |
| TB | Q4 2:28 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 23–19 |
| GB | Q4 1:45 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 23–26 |
| TB | Q4 1:05 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 23–26 |
| GB | Q4 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 16/26 | 110 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 6 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Reidel Anthony | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/40 | 390 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 22 | 99 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 7 | 10 | 158 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 7 | 13 | 152 | 2 |
| Dorsey Levens | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.17