2020 · Week 6

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

10·38

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

55

Model margin

+0.9est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.221EPA / play+0.149
  • 50.7%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.353EPA / dropback+0.239
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.032
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +6.90CPOE+3.10
  • 50.7%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 86.4%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 2.98Points / drive2.68
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 11-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4GB @ TB17–14GB
2023 · W15TB @ GB34–20TB
2022 · W3GB @ TB14–12GB
2020 · playoffsTB @ GB31–26TB
2017 · W13TB @ GB20–26GB
2014 · W16GB @ TB20–3GB
2011 · W11TB @ GB26–35GB
2009 · W9GB @ TB28–38TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–TB
GBQ1 15:00954Field goal3–0
TBQ1 10:2739Punt3–0
GBQ1 8:201290Touchdown10–0
TBQ1 0:48730Punt10–0
GBQ2 13:0730Opp touchdown10–7
GBQ2 12:4237Turnover10–13
TBQ2 11:0512Touchdown10–14
GBQ2 11:0230Punt10–14
TBQ2 10:401150Touchdown10–21
GBQ2 4:353-4Punt10–21
TBQ2 2:42762Touchdown10–28
GBQ2 1:0262End of half10–28
TBQ3 15:00543Field goal10–31
GBQ3 12:1435Punt10–31
TBQ3 10:3730Punt10–31
GBQ3 10:13928Punt10–31
TBQ3 5:27844Touchdown10–38
GBQ3 2:4034Punt10–38
TBQ3 0:31733Punt10–38
GBQ4 12:07622Punt10–38
TBQ4 8:3738Punt10–38
GBQ4 7:053-7Punt10–38
TBQ4 4:54743End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers16/3516002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams4348.50
AJ Dillon5316.20
Aaron Jones10151.51
Aaron Rodgers2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams610610
Marquez Valdes-Scantling35320
Aaron Jones35260
Robert Tonyan34250
Darrius Shepherd11160
Marcedes Lewis0200
Jamaal Williams0100
Equanimeous St. Brown0200
Malik Taylor0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady17/2716620
Blaine Gabbert0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones231134.92
Ke'Shawn Vaughn5428.40
Blaine Gabbert320.70
LeSean McCoy410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski58781
Chris Godwin Jr.57480
Mike Evans12100
Ronald Jones2280
Tyler Johnson1171
LeSean McCoy1160
Scott Miller1260
Cameron Brate1130
Cyril Grayson0200
Ke'Shawn Vaughn0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.94