2020 · Week 6
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
GB -3
Total
55
Model margin
+0.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.221EPA / play+0.149
- 50.7%Success rate46.9%
- +0.353EPA / dropback+0.239
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.032
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- +6.90CPOE+3.10
- 50.7%Third-down rate44.2%
- 86.4%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 2.98Points / drive2.68
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. TB are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/35 | 160 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Darrius Shepherd | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 17/27 | 166 | 2 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 23 | 113 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Cyril Grayson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.94