2017 · Week 13

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

20·26

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Hundley

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

45

Model margin

+0.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPackers
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.023
  • 44.2%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.090EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.032
  • 6.5%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +3.38CPOE-1.27
  • 42.9%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.77
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. GB are 7-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4GB @ TB17–14GB
2023 · W15TB @ GB34–20TB
2022 · W3GB @ TB14–12GB
2020 · playoffsTB @ GB31–26TB
2020 · W6GB @ TB10–38TB
2014 · W16GB @ TB20–3GB
2011 · W11TB @ GB26–35GB
2009 · W9GB @ TB28–38TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–GB
TBQ1 15:001075Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 9:521471Field goal7–3
TBQ1 2:3032Punt7–3
GBQ1 1:36526Punt7–3
TBQ2 14:01519Punt7–3
GBQ2 10:5910Turnover7–3
TBQ2 10:4633Punt7–3
GBQ2 9:44545Touchdown7–10
TBQ2 7:12537Opp touchdown7–17
TBQ2 4:171152Field goal10–17
GBQ2 0:1300End of half10–17
GBQ3 15:0036Punt10–17
TBQ3 12:581028Punt10–17
GBQ3 6:553-2Punt10–17
TBQ3 5:211268Field goal13–17
GBQ4 14:3135Punt13–17
TBQ4 13:0413103Touchdown20–17
GBQ4 6:02956Field goal20–20
TBQ4 2:0148Punt20–20
GBQ4 0:443-2End of half20–20
GBOT872Touchdown20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston21/3227020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber231024.40
Jacquizz Rodgers3258.30
Jameis Winston5183.60
Charles Sims3165.30
Bobo Wilson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Peyton Barber44410
Cameron Brate26392
Charles Sims22350
Mike Evans26330
Adam Humphries44330
DeSean Jackson23240
Chris Godwin Jr.23240
O.J. Howard12170
Alan Cross11130
Antony Auclair11110

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Hundley13/228401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams211135.41
Brett Hundley7669.40
Aaron Jones12020.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams46420
Jordy Nelson58170
Lance Kendricks11110
Jamaal Williams23100
Richard Rodgers1240
Geronimo Allison0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.42