2017 · Week 13
Final / OT
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
GB -3
Total
45
Model margin
+0.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.023
- 44.2%Success rate45.2%
- +0.090EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.032
- 6.5%Explosive rate6.2%
- +3.38CPOE-1.27
- 42.9%Third-down rate39.5%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.79Points / drive1.77
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 21/32 | 270 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 23 | 102 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Bobo Wilson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 6 | 39 | 2 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Hundley | 13/22 | 84 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 21 | 113 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Brett Hundley | 7 | 66 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.42