2023 · Week 15
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
GB -4
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.075
- 40.5%Success rate45.1%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.25CPOE+1.07
- 42.2%Third-down rate47.4%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.86Points / drive2.16
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/28 | 381 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 21 | 89 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 10 | 12 | 155 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 2 | 68 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ko Kieft | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 29/39 | 284 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontayvion Wicks | 6 | 7 | 97 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 4 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Jayden Reed | 6 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ben Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.81