2023 · Week 15

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

34·20

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPackers
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.075
  • 40.5%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.054
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +0.25CPOE+1.07
  • 42.2%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.16
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. GB are 7-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4GB @ TB17–14GB
2022 · W3GB @ TB14–12GB
2020 · playoffsTB @ GB31–26TB
2020 · W6GB @ TB10–38TB
2017 · W13TB @ GB20–26GB
2014 · W16GB @ TB20–3GB
2011 · W11TB @ GB26–35GB
2009 · W9GB @ TB28–38TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–GB
TBQ1 15:00954Field goal3–0
GBQ1 9:021171Turnover on downs3–0
TBQ1 2:2520Turnover3–0
GBQ1 1:4124Touchdown3–7
TBQ1 0:49775Touchdown10–7
GBQ2 12:21752Field goal10–10
TBQ2 7:09311Punt10–10
GBQ2 5:31620Punt10–10
TBQ2 2:13971Field goal13–10
GBQ2 0:1000End of half13–10
GBQ3 15:0033Punt13–10
TBQ3 14:21866Touchdown20–10
GBQ3 10:551285Touchdown20–17
TBQ3 4:181064Touchdown27–17
GBQ3 0:20960Field goal27–20
TBQ4 10:04675Touchdown34–20
GBQ4 6:30927Turnover34–20
TBQ4 4:18638End of half34–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield22/2838140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White21894.20
Chase Edmonds3134.30
Deven Thompkins1-1-1.00
Baker Mayfield2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.10121550
David Moore22681
Mike Evans46571
Rachaad White22501
Cade Otton22440
Trey Palmer1250
Ko Kieft1121

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love29/3928420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones13534.10
Patrick Taylor166.00
Jordan Love210.50
Kenyan Drake100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dontayvion Wicks67970
Tucker Kraft46571
Jayden Reed68521
Romeo Doubs33300
Malik Heath33290
Aaron Jones44160
Bo Melton1270
Ben Sims0100
Patrick Taylor22-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.81