2022 · Week 3

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

14·12

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.017EPA / play-0.030
  • 46.2%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback+0.052
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.208
  • 9.7%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +0.52CPOE+0.30
  • 39.3%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.63
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 11-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4GB @ TB17–14GB
2023 · W15TB @ GB34–20TB
2020 · playoffsTB @ GB31–26TB
2020 · W6GB @ TB10–38TB
2017 · W13TB @ GB20–26GB
2014 · W16GB @ TB20–3GB
2011 · W11TB @ GB26–35GB
2009 · W9GB @ TB28–38TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–TB
TBQ1 15:00948Field goal0–3
GBQ1 9:051075Touchdown7–3
TBQ1 3:01414Punt7–3
GBQ1 0:331271Touchdown14–3
TBQ2 8:4432Punt14–3
GBQ2 5:57660Turnover14–3
TBQ2 2:02749Turnover14–3
GBQ2 0:4138Punt14–3
TBQ2 0:0600End of half14–3
GBQ3 15:00417Punt14–3
TBQ3 12:46616Turnover14–3
GBQ3 11:1836Punt14–3
TBQ3 10:0030Punt14–3
GBQ3 9:2635Turnover14–3
TBQ3 7:52420Field goal14–6
GBQ3 6:22418Punt14–6
TBQ3 3:29619Punt14–6
GBQ3 0:3536Punt14–6
TBQ4 13:1738Punt14–6
GBQ4 11:18513Punt14–6
TBQ4 8:40428Punt14–6
GBQ4 5:57837Punt14–6
TBQ4 3:041482Touchdown14–12
GBQ4 0:1400End of half14–12

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/3525521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones12363.00
AJ Dillon12322.70
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs88731
Randall Cobb22570
Allen Lazard46451
Robert Tonyan67370
Tyler Davis22260
Aaron Jones34110
AJ Dillon2360
Juwann Winfree0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady31/4227110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette12352.90
Breshad Perriman100.00
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Russell Gage1213871
Cameron Brate56520
Breshad Perriman34440
Leonard Fournette56350
Jaelon Darden11250
Kyle Rudolph11120
Cole Beasley34120
Scott Miller1540

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.28