2022 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play-0.030
- 46.2%Success rate44.0%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.208
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.5%
- +0.52CPOE+0.30
- 39.3%Third-down rate38.1%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.91Points / drive1.63
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. TB are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/35 | 255 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 8 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Juwann Winfree | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/42 | 271 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 12 | 13 | 87 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Jaelon Darden | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.28