2011 · Week 11

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

26·35

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -13.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+8.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPackers
  • -0.107EPA / play+0.230
  • 43.0%Success rate48.2%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.405
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.114
  • 6.3%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -1.20CPOE+8.47
  • 37.0%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 1.39Points / drive2.85
  • 3.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. GB are 7-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4GB @ TB17–14GB
2023 · W15TB @ GB34–20TB
2022 · W3GB @ TB14–12GB
2020 · playoffsTB @ GB31–26TB
2020 · W6GB @ TB10–38TB
2017 · W13TB @ GB20–26GB
2014 · W16GB @ TB20–3GB
2009 · W9GB @ TB28–38TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–GB
TBQ1 15:00629Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:18616Touchdown0–0
GBQ1 8:53234Touchdown0–0
GBQ1 8:04834Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 2:513-2Punt0–7
GBQ1 0:55549Touchdown0–14
TBQ2 13:44282Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 12:46515Punt7–14
TBQ2 10:551275Field goal10–14
GBQ2 3:52548Touchdown10–21
TBQ2 1:58533Turnover10–21
GBQ2 0:32313End of half10–21
GBQ3 15:00631Punt10–21
TBQ3 12:091267Field goal13–21
GBQ3 4:53621Punt13–21
TBQ3 2:36891Touchdown19–21
GBQ4 13:071170Touchdown19–28
TBQ4 7:4237Punt19–28
GBQ4 5:5510Turnover19–28
TBQ4 5:46550Touchdown26–28
GBQ4 4:25346Touchdown26–35
TBQ4 2:5510Turnover26–35
GBQ4 2:3732Missed field goal26–35
TBQ4 1:36423Turnover on downs26–35
GBQ4 0:3100End of half26–35

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman28/3834222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount181075.91
Arrelious Benn199.00
Josh Freeman155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow9111320
Mike Williams711831
Arrelious Benn56750
Preston Parker12200
Kregg Lumpkin1180
Dezmon Briscoe2371
LeGarrette Blount1160
Luke Stocker1110

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3429931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks11383.50
Aaron Rodgers5285.60
Ryan Grant4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson671232
Donald Driver45720
James Starks66530
Jermichael Finley13300
Randall Cobb11110
Greg Jennings2660
Tom Crabtree2251
James Jones0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.8%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+8.40