2011 · Week 11
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
GB -13.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+8.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play+0.230
- 43.0%Success rate48.2%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.405
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.114
- 6.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- -1.20CPOE+8.47
- 37.0%Third-down rate48.7%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 1.39Points / drive2.85
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 28/38 | 342 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 18 | 107 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 9 | 11 | 132 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 7 | 11 | 83 | 1 |
| Arrelious Benn | 5 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/34 | 299 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 7 | 123 | 2 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| James Starks | 6 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| James Jones | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.8%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+8.40