2014 · Week 16
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
GB -11.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.142EPA / play-0.111
- 47.1%Success rate38.5%
- +0.317EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.190
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- +2.68CPOE-1.50
- 47.1%Third-down rate36.6%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.59Points / drive1.33
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. TB are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 31/40 | 318 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 17 | 99 | 5.8 | 1 |
| James Starks | 7 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 11 | 14 | 131 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 9 | 9 | 113 | 1 |
| James Starks | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 12/26 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.83