2014 · Week 16

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

20·3

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh McCown

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -11.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.142EPA / play-0.111
  • 47.1%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.317EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.190
  • 11.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +2.68CPOE-1.50
  • 47.1%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.33
  • 1.2%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 11-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4GB @ TB17–14GB
2023 · W15TB @ GB34–20TB
2022 · W3GB @ TB14–12GB
2020 · playoffsTB @ GB31–26TB
2020 · W6GB @ TB10–38TB
2017 · W13TB @ GB20–26GB
2011 · W11TB @ GB26–35GB
2009 · W9GB @ TB28–38TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–TB
GBQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:1236Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:40528Turnover0–0
TBQ1 9:373-10Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:37630Punt0–0
TBQ1 5:2936Punt0–0
GBQ1 3:48887Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 0:4934Punt7–0
GBQ2 14:46831Missed field goal7–0
TBQ2 10:003-6Punt7–0
GBQ2 8:57851Field goal10–0
TBQ2 4:551476Field goal10–3
TBQ3 15:0036Punt10–3
GBQ3 13:351366Turnover on downs10–3
TBQ3 5:49613Punt10–3
GBQ3 1:451156Field goal13–3
TBQ4 10:1964Punt13–3
GBQ4 6:47976Touchdown20–3
TBQ4 2:45510Turnover20–3
GBQ4 1:3800End of half20–3

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers31/4031810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy17995.81
James Starks730.40
Matt Flynn3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb11141310
Jordy Nelson991131
James Starks45220
Andrew Quarless23170
Davante Adams24170
Richard Rodgers23130
Eddie Lacy1150
Jarrett Boykin0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown12/2614701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin10171.70
Charles Sims4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson36600
Mike Evans47490
Charles Sims36300
Luke Stocker2380
Brandon Myers0200
Doug Martin0100
Russell Shepard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -11.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.2%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.83