2026 · Week 4
Scheduled
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+6.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Packersedge mapBuccaneers
- -0.181EPA / play-0.081
- 38.2%Success rate51.8%
- -0.059EPA / dropback-0.168
- -0.438EPA / rush+0.118
- 13.2%Explosive rate5.4%
- -9.65CPOE+14.02
- 25.0%Third-down rate50.0%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.91Points / drive1.44
- 2.9%Turnover rate7.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. TB are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.21
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.18