2026 · Week 4

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

17·14

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jalon Daniels

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.081
  • 40.0%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.266EPA / rush-0.011
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.28CPOE-2.76
  • 36.3%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.96Points / drive1.86
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 11-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15TB @ GB34–20TB
2022 · W3GB @ TB14–12GB
2020 · playoffsTB @ GB31–26TB
2020 · W6GB @ TB10–38TB
2017 · W13TB @ GB20–26GB
2014 · W16GB @ TB20–3GB
2011 · W11TB @ GB26–35GB
2009 · W9GB @ TB28–38TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–TB
TBQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:09527Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:19637Turnover0–0
GBQ1 7:101766Touchdown7–0
TBQ2 12:5433Punt7–0
GBQ2 11:4044Punt7–0
TBQ2 10:27954Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 5:13415Punt7–7
TBQ2 3:151039Turnover7–7
GBQ2 0:3424Field goal10–7
GBQ3 15:00880Touchdown17–7
TBQ3 10:323-1Punt17–7
GBQ3 8:19413Punt17–7
TBQ3 6:171289Touchdown17–14
GBQ4 14:491174Turnover17–14
TBQ4 9:0668Punt17–14
GBQ4 4:59212Turnover17–14
TBQ4 4:181038Turnover on downs17–14
GBQ4 1:2500End of half17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love22/3019721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kaleb Johnson8425.30
Chris Brooks4307.50
MarShawn Lloyd7131.90
Matthew Golden166.00
Tucker Kraft133.00
Jordan Love4-8-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson33470
Tucker Kraft67421
MarShawn Lloyd55360
Mark Redman22290
Matthew Golden37211
Jonnu Smith11190
Chris Brooks1150
Bo Melton0100
J. Michael Sturdivant0100
Skyy Moore12-20

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalon Daniels19/2714812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving16613.80
Jalon Daniels8556.90
Sean Tucker3103.31
Tez Johnson11010.00
Kenny Gainwell351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cade Otton46370
Chris Godwin Jr.67310
Ted Hurst III23250
Kenny Gainwell22221
Tez Johnson22170
Emeka Egbuka24130
Kameron Johnson1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.52
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.80