2020 · CON
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 29°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
GB -3
Total
53
Model margin
+2.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.221
- 46.9%Success rate50.7%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.353
- -0.032EPA / rush+0.025
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- +3.10CPOE+6.90
- 44.2%Third-down rate50.7%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
- 2.68Points / drive2.98
- 1.5%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/36 | 280 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 9 | 110 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 33/48 | 346 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 6 | 115 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 9 | 15 | 67 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 4 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.31