2020 · CON

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

31·26

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 29°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

53

Model margin

+2.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPackers
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.221
  • 46.9%Success rate50.7%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.353
  • -0.032EPA / rush+0.025
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +3.10CPOE+6.90
  • 44.2%Third-down rate50.7%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
  • 2.68Points / drive2.98
  • 1.5%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. GB are 7-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4GB @ TB17–14GB
2023 · W15TB @ GB34–20TB
2022 · W3GB @ TB14–12GB
2020 · W6GB @ TB10–38TB
2017 · W13TB @ GB20–26GB
2014 · W16GB @ TB20–3GB
2011 · W11TB @ GB26–35GB
2009 · W9GB @ TB28–38TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–GB
TBQ1 15:00966Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 10:59510Punt7–0
TBQ1 7:33917Punt7–0
GBQ1 2:49790Touchdown7–7
TBQ2 14:07473Touchdown14–7
GBQ2 12:241469Field goal14–10
TBQ2 4:59628Punt14–10
GBQ2 2:10520Turnover14–10
TBQ2 0:28551Touchdown21–10
GBQ2 0:0100End of half21–10
GBQ3 15:0034Turnover27–10
TBQ3 13:5818Touchdown28–10
GBQ3 13:54875Touchdown28–17
TBQ3 9:28414Turnover28–17
GBQ3 7:541460Touchdown28–23
TBQ3 0:24722Turnover28–23
GBQ4 12:203-5Punt28–23
TBQ4 10:3938Turnover28–23
GBQ4 9:1530Punt28–23
TBQ4 8:10744Field goal31–23
GBQ4 4:42858Field goal31–26
TBQ4 2:05821End of half31–26

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/3628033

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette12554.61
Ronald Jones10161.60
Chris Godwin Jr.166.00
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.591100
Mike Evans38511
Scott Miller23361
Rob Gronkowski11290
Cameron Brate35191
Leonard Fournette57190
Tyler Johnson12160

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers33/4834631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones6274.50
Jamaal Williams7233.30
AJ Dillon3175.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling461151
Davante Adams915671
Allen Lazard36620
Marcedes Lewis33280
Robert Tonyan44221
Jamaal Williams44220
AJ Dillon11130
Equanimeous St. Brown11100
Aaron Jones4670

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.31