Closing spread
SF -5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.036
- 42.4%Success rate41.7%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- 38.5%Third-down rate34.4%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate42.7%
- 1.98Points / drive1.14
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.053EPA / play allowed+0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 23/36 | 300 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 6 | 7 | 96 | 1 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 6 | 10 | 93 | 2 |
| Wesley Walls | 5 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| Eric Metcalf | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Rae Carruth | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 22/45 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Rice | 5 | 12 | 59 | 1 |
| J.J. Stokes | 3 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Chad Fann | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mark Harris | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
47.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.21